TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Patrik Sturma 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111315131210117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 92 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 57.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 12–9 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4357.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Stefek
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1372 vs Sturma 1353
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Sturma 80%
Sturma
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Sturma 60%
Sturma
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Sturma +3
Sturma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.666 / Sturma 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stefek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266730
Stefek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Sturma2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 128 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back42% 56 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwaySturma6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek25%1 of 4
AwaySturma50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Stefek3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S3Stefek5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek6Sturma4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S5Stefek4Sturma4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSturmaStefek − SturmaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.948.3−2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 130 vs 448 / 91849.2%48.8%64 / 130 vs 448 / 918Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.67/Sturma 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek51101211992P. Sturma521210811113
WOct 6 · 16:40D. Stefek44113811113P. Sturma4491111762
LOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek473101111122P. Sturma52111269143
WOct 1 · 10:15D. Stefek46491111113P. Sturma4311118762
LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek531310155102P. Sturma5911121311123
LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek301163101P. Sturma4281111123
WAug 20 · 09:40D. Stefek484121011113P. Sturma50111012982
LAug 19 · 13:15D. Stefek521110101382P. Sturma537121211113
WAug 19 · 10:10D. Stefek531311711113P. Sturma4715611782
LAug 19 · 07:40D. Stefek35881181P. Sturma4111118113
D. Stefek10
LOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113WOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580LOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113WOct 6 · 19:40M. Dolezal2.108870D. Stefek1.671111113LOct 6 · 19:10L. Zustina2.20111111113D. Stefek1.61135761LOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek1.67101211992P. Sturma2.101210811113WOct 6 · 16:40P. Sturma2.1091111762D. Stefek1.67113811113LOct 6 · 15:40D. Stefek1.732880F. Mandrysz2.001111113LOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek1.613101111122P. Sturma2.20111269143LOct 6 · 13:40D. Stefek1.5011751182L. Krupnik Jr2.50711115113
P. Sturma10
WOct 9 · 07:15R. Zajac2.6311791172P. Sturma1.44811117113WOct 9 · 06:15P. Sturma1.53129911123L. Snr2.381011117102WOct 6 · 21:05L. Zustina1.44117561P. Sturma2.6371111113LOct 6 · 20:10P. Sturma1.736770L. Zustina2.001111113WOct 6 · 18:40M. Dolezal1.805780P. Sturma1.911111113WOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek1.67101211992P. Sturma2.101210811113LOct 6 · 16:40P. Sturma2.1091111762D. Stefek1.67113811113LOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113WOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek1.613101111122P. Sturma2.20111269143LOct 6 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.7381111123P. Sturma2.001157101
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