TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Radek Zajac 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dominik Stefek @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 62.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 2–1 Radek Zajac Radek Zajac has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 22:25Sent to Pro: Dominik Stefek @ 1.50 · Won
62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1375 vs Zajac 1301
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Zajac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Zajac 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Zajac +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.50 / Zajac 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Stefek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266423
Stefek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Zajac2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStefek2wins
AwayZajac1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderStefek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek2Zajac1n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S2Stefek1Zajac2n = 3Zajac took 2 of 3
S3Stefek2Zajac1n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S4Stefek3Zajac0n = 3Stefek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStefekZajacS − ZBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match42.038.3+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 128 vs 16 / 4449.2%36.4%63 / 128 vs 16 / 44Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.50/Zajac 2.50
Hit
What we said
62.5%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dominik Stefek @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek4678111192R. Zajac49111179113
WSep 29 · 07:15D. Stefek4111811113R. Zajac33811591
WAug 20 · 16:10D. Stefek3912115113R. Zajac331061161
D. Stefek10
LOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113WOct 6 · 19:40M. Dolezal2.108870D. Stefek1.671111113LOct 6 · 19:10L. Zustina2.20111111113D. Stefek1.61135761LOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek1.67101211992P. Sturma2.101210811113WOct 6 · 16:40P. Sturma2.1091111762D. Stefek1.67113811113LOct 6 · 15:40D. Stefek1.732880F. Mandrysz2.001111113LOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek1.613101111122P. Sturma2.20111269143LOct 6 · 13:40D. Stefek1.5011751182L. Krupnik Jr2.50711115113WOct 5 · 13:10D. Stefek2.201111113O. Skvor1.619670WOct 5 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr2.25971161D. Stefek1.5711116113
R. Zajac10
WSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113WSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113LSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113LSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122LSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971WSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113LSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113WSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113LSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641
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