TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Ondrej Skvor 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 1–2 Ondrej Skvor Dominik Stefek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stefek beat Skvor 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0154.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1419 vs Skvor 1516
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Skvor 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Skvor 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +4 · Skvor +1
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.20 / Skvor 1.615
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvor)-7.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13248574
Stefek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 30 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Skvor1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 60 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it64% 36 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwaySkvor2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderSkvor leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek0Skvor3n = 3Skvor took 3 of 3
S2Stefek2Skvor1n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S3Stefek1Skvor2n = 3Skvor took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricStefekSkvorStefek − SkvorBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match33.044.3−11.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 119 vs 111 / 20950.4%53.1%60 / 119 vs 111 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorStefek 2.20/Skvor 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 11:10D. Stefek462111111113O. Skvor4911981382
LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek1642100O. Skvor341111123
LAug 15 · 12:15D. Stefek3771161122O. Skvor50119118113
D. Stefek10
WOct 5 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr2.25971161D. Stefek1.5711116113WOct 5 · 11:10D. Stefek2.752111111113O. Skvor1.4011981382WOct 5 · 09:40J. Sindler1.9191181282D. Stefek1.801191110113WOct 2 · 20:45R. Benesz2.38121196132D. Stefek1.531081111153LOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 19:10R. Benesz2.381111159113D. Stefek1.53513131152WOct 2 · 18:10D. Stefek1.831111113B. Jonas1.839850LOct 1 · 13:15D. Stefek1.91911611112P. Chlad1.80116115133WOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 11:15L. Krupnik Jr2.0010630D. Stefek1.731211113
O. Skvor10
WOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113LOct 5 · 11:10D. Stefek2.752111111113O. Skvor1.4011981382WOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.46111114113L. Krupnik Jr2.50751651WOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor1.36491111113J. Matus3.0011119262WOct 5 · 07:40J. Matus2.2551150O. Skvor1.571113113WOct 5 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.255880O. Skvor1.571111113WOct 5 · 06:10O. Skvor1.611111113A. Strelec2.206670WOct 4 · 13:15O. Skvor1.831381111113M. Lorenc1.83111181372WOct 4 · 11:40O. Skvor1.6311811113V. Molin2.15111481LOct 4 · 10:40O. Skvor1.83771281M. Lorenc1.83111110113
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