TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Skvor vs Dominik Stefek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118121011131416118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 14-16
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 114 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 56.6%
114 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 2–2 Dominik Stefek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4356.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1494 vs Stefek 1381
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 80% vs Stefek 60%
Skvor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 80% vs Stefek 50%
Skvor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +3 · Stefek -1
Skvor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.666 / Stefek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skvor)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266759
Skvor1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it67% 45 of 67
Stefek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkvor2wins
AwayStefek2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor66.7%2 of 3
AwayStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor3Stefek1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
S2Skvor1Stefek3n = 4Stefek took 3 of 4
S3Skvor2Stefek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkvorStefekSkvor − StefekBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.833.0+5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 223 vs 66 / 13353.4%49.6%119 / 223 vs 66 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.67/Stefek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 5 · 13:10O. Skvor229670D. Stefek331111113
LOct 5 · 11:10O. Skvor4911981382D. Stefek462111111113
WSep 5 · 15:40O. Skvor341111123D. Stefek1642100
WAug 15 · 12:15O. Skvor50119118113D. Stefek3771161122
O. Skvor10
WOct 9 · 11:45O. Skvor1.61111144113J. Sindler2.2098111152WOct 9 · 09:45O. Skvor1.5081211143P. Sturma2.5011109121WOct 8 · 12:40O. Skvor1.40119811113M. Kliment2.7591111942WOct 8 · 11:40J. Sindler2.25119111162O. Skvor1.57611138113LOct 8 · 11:10A. Strelec2.751111113O. Skvor1.409990WOct 8 · 10:10O. Skvor1.365111511113M. Kliment3.0011717182WOct 8 · 09:08O. Skvor1.22119119133L. Krupnik Jr4.00911511112WOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 06:40O. Skvor1.611111113P. Jokiel2.206680WOct 8 · 05:40O. Skvor1.361112113L. Krupnik Jr3.0051020
D. Stefek10
LOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681WOct 9 · 09:15D. Stefek1.6781111123L. Snr2.101139101WOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071LOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113WOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580LOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113WOct 6 · 19:40M. Dolezal2.108870D. Stefek1.671111113LOct 6 · 19:10L. Zustina2.20111111113D. Stefek1.61135761LOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek1.67101211992P. Sturma2.101210811113WOct 6 · 16:40P. Sturma2.1091111762D. Stefek1.67113811113
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