TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Jaroslav Sindler 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 23-Czech 12 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119211811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 10–9 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1356 vs Sindler 1403
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Sindler 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Sindler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Sindler -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.833 / Sindler 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sindler)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13277270
Stefek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sindler1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwaySindler5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek62.5%5 of 8
AwaySindlern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek8Sindler2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Stefek5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek7Sindler3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Stefek1Sindler6n = 7Sindler took 6 of 7
S5Stefek2Sindler3n = 5Sindler took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSindlerStefek − SindlerBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.1+1.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 137 vs 450 / 86748.9%51.9%67 / 137 vs 450 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerStefek 1.83/Sindler 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 10:15D. Stefek35129681J. Sindler43101111113
WOct 5 · 09:40D. Stefek521191110113J. Sindler4891181282
LSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek53714101392J. Sindler5711121211113
WSep 13 · 06:15D. Stefek341211113J. Sindler2010550
WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek331111113J. Sindler229580
WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek42124114113J. Sindler48101181182
LSep 5 · 16:43D. Stefek50119119102J. Sindler46811411123
LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek44116111152J. Sindler50611913113
LAug 27 · 09:09D. Stefek4110111191J. Sindler4312713113
WAug 27 · 07:40D. Stefek331111113J. Sindler247980
D. Stefek10
LOct 11 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113D. Stefek2.387650LOct 9 · 12:39D. Stefek1.5797120P. Sturma2.251111143WOct 9 · 12:15D. Stefek2.251111113P. Sturma1.574590LOct 9 · 10:45O. Skvor1.6711121114113D. Stefek2.10810131682LOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681WOct 9 · 09:15D. Stefek1.6781111123L. Snr2.101139101WOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071LOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113WOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580LOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113
J. Sindler10
LOct 11 · 11:40V. Reska1.6111134113J. Sindler2.209111191LOct 11 · 10:10J. Sindler1.734116111P. Chvojka2.0011611133LOct 11 · 08:39J. Sindler1.61114791P. Chvojka2.2091111113WOct 11 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7312114113P. Chvojka2.001071151LOct 11 · 06:40J. Sindler1.574750P. Jokiel2.251111113LOct 11 · 05:40J. Sindler1.57971131F. Mandrysz2.2511113113WOct 9 · 13:09O. Skvor1.673157121J. Sindler2.10111311143LOct 9 · 11:45O. Skvor1.61111144113J. Sindler2.2098111152WOct 9 · 11:15P. Sturma2.101181211102J. Sindler1.67911147123WOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681
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