TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Vanous vs Peter Chvojka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111171181210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Peter Chvojka at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 9–2 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5654.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vanous
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Vanous
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1305 vs Chvojka 1408
Chvojka
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 40% vs Chvojka 60%
Chvojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 40% vs Chvojka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -2 · Chvojka +3
Chvojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chvojka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 1.80 / Chvojka 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chvojka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13258570
Vanous1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 30 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Chvojka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous8wins
AwayChvojka2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVanous leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous77.8%7 of 9
AwayChvojkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous9Chvojka1n = 10Vanous took 9 of 10
S2Vanous5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S3Vanous5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Vanous6Chvojka1n = 7Vanous took 6 of 7
S5Vanous3Chvojka2n = 5Vanous took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousChvojkaV − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.835.6+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 324 vs 158 / 34143.5%46.3%141 / 324 vs 158 / 341Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaVanous 1.80/Chvojka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vanous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 20:45J. Vanous47111176123P. Chvojka48881111102
WJun 25 · 18:45J. Vanous331111113P. Chvojka177550
WJun 2 · 20:15J. Vanous3811115113P. Chvojka36981181
LMay 31 · 19:10J. Vanous4311581182P. Chvojka48711118113
WApr 24 · 18:45J. Vanous43111011113P. Chvojka29712641
WApr 21 · 18:15J. Vanous40241211113P. Chvojka42111110642
WApr 18 · 19:40J. Vanous48119411133P. Chvojka47611118112
WApr 11 · 20:10J. Vanous331111113P. Chvojka217860
WMar 12 · 20:45J. Vanous331111113P. Chvojka219480
LDec 19 · 17:55J. Vanous501110611122P. Chvojka47312117143
J. Vanous10
WOct 7 · 20:48K. Przeczek1.5098110J. Vanous2.501111133LOct 7 · 18:40K. Przeczek1.5091111113J. Vanous2.50118791LOct 7 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113J. Vanous2.10681181WOct 1 · 20:40J. Vanous1.801111123I. Jemelka1.9166100WOct 1 · 20:10I. Jemelka1.73511691J. Vanous2.0011611113LOct 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.109101181T. Ogrocki1.6711123113LOct 1 · 17:40K. Przeczek1.611111113J. Vanous2.208990WSep 26 · 20:50K. Zeman1.503101191J. Vanous2.5011124113LSep 26 · 20:15J. Vanous2.20781141P. Jokiel1.6111119113WSep 26 · 18:45K. Zeman1.44116741J. Vanous2.6331111113
P. Chvojka10
WOct 7 · 19:10P. Chvojka1.731111123T. Ogrocki2.0088100WOct 7 · 17:40K. Przeczek1.6151020P. Chvojka2.201112113WOct 2 · 12:38J. Sindler1.539770P. Chvojka2.381111113LOct 2 · 11:40P. Chvojka2.10111112262J. Sindler1.67961411113LOct 2 · 10:40P. Chvojka1.73107100P. Jokiel2.001211123LOct 2 · 09:40P. Chvojka1.301411471P. Sturma3.40121311113WSep 28 · 08:55P. Chvojka1.611111113P. Chlad2.206560LSep 28 · 08:15P. Jokiel1.67115124113P. Chvojka2.10911101152WSep 28 · 07:15P. Chvojka1.8011711113P. Chlad1.91911751LSep 28 · 05:45O. Coufal1.8081111113P. Chvojka1.91116881
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