TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Kundeus vs Mykyta Kornijchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Oleksandr Kundeus
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911911911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMykyta Kornijchuk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Kundeus @ 2.25 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingOleksandr Kundeus above · Mykyta Kornijchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Mykyta Kornijchuk at 58.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kundeus 0–2 Mykyta Kornijchuk Oleksandr Kundeus has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 10:54Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Kundeus @ 2.25 · Lost
58.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kornijchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kundeus 593 vs Kornijchuk 558
Kundeus
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kundeus 60% vs Kornijchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kundeus 50% vs Kornijchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kundeus +3 · Kornijchuk -1
Kundeus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kornijchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kundeus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKundeus 2.25 / Kornijchuk 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kornijchuk)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276556
Kundeus2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kornijchuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 5 of 10
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKundeus0wins
AwayKornijchuk2wins
Kornijchuk leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKundeusKornijchukKundeus − KornijchukBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.543.0−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKundeusKornijchukBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 13 vs 12 / 3738.5%32.4%5 / 13 vs 12 / 37Avg sets wonper match1.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.731.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KundeusKundeus 2.25/Kornijchuk 1.57
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Kornijchuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Kundeus @ 2.25 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
1–3
Kornijchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 11 · 11:05O. Kundeus39129991M. Kornijchuk43101111113
LOct 10 · 12:25O. Kundeus3871011101M. Kornijchuk4311128123
O. Kundeus10
WOct 11 · 09:05A. Lanchut1.916350O. Kundeus1.801111113WOct 11 · 08:05O. Kundeus1.83111110113V. Sydorchuk1.83961281WOct 11 · 07:05O. Bolnyh1.61911961O. Kundeus2.2011711113LOct 11 · 05:35O. Kundeus3.40871181M. Senyk1.3011119113LOct 10 · 18:55M. Senyk1.331113113O. Kundeus3.2521160WOct 10 · 17:25O. Kundeus2.38116116113O. Bolnyh1.5361161162WOct 10 · 15:25V. Sydorchuk1.4411116942O. Kundeus2.63661111113LOct 10 · 13:25A. Lanchut2.25111111113O. Kundeus1.57613541LOct 10 · 12:25M. Kornijchuk1.6111128123O. Kundeus2.2071011101LOct 3 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.361011911113O. Kundeus3.0012211542
M. Kornijchuk10
LOct 11 · 10:05V. Sydorchuk1.571112113M. Kornijchuk2.2571060WOct 11 · 08:35O. Bolnyh1.1311670M. Kornijchuk5.501311113LOct 11 · 06:35M. Senyk1.4061111113M. Kornijchuk2.75113941WOct 11 · 04:35A. Lanchut3.5071080M. Kornijchuk1.281112113WOct 10 · 17:55A. Lanchut2.6391010M. Kornijchuk1.441112113LOct 10 · 16:55M. Kornijchuk2.389111171M. Senyk1.5311138113LOct 10 · 15:55M. Kornijchuk6.50441161O. Bolnyh1.1011117113LOct 10 · 14:25M. Kornijchuk2.256712101V. Sydorchuk1.57111110123WOct 10 · 12:25M. Kornijchuk1.6111128123O. Kundeus2.2071011101WOct 3 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk3.2591111113V. Sydorchuk1.33118741
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