TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotiash vs Volodymyr Korobko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12141181173111412
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Korobko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Volodymyr Korobko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Volodymyr Korobko at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 2–1 Volodymyr Korobko Volodymyr Korobko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Korobko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1488 vs Korobko 1472
Kotiash
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 40% vs Korobko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 60% vs Korobko 40%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -1 · Korobko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Korobko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korobko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.909 / Korobko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Korobko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276324
Kotiash1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back16% 9 of 57
Korobko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 36 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKotiash2wins
AwayKorobko1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKotiash leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash1Korobko2n = 3Korobko took 2 of 3
S2Kotiash2Korobko1n = 3Kotiash took 2 of 3
S3Kotiash3Korobko0n = 3Kotiash took 3 of 3
S4Kotiash1Korobko2n = 3Korobko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKotiashKorobkoKotiash − KorobkoBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.346.3−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKorobkoBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 470 vs 208 / 46847%44.4%221 / 470 vs 208 / 468Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.034.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KorobkoKotiash 1.91/Korobko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Korobko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 11 · 07:25A. Kotiash511211113143V. Korobko52148711122
WOct 10 · 02:15A. Kotiash4111712113V. Korobko358111061
LOct 2 · 20:15A. Kotiash4131211692V. Korobko521110911113
A. Kotiash10
LOct 11 · 05:55A. Kotiash2.639121181M. Slozka1.4411148113WOct 11 · 04:25A. Kotiash3.501111113D. Palii1.284660WOct 10 · 02:15A. Kotiash2.2511712113V. Korobko1.578111061LOct 10 · 00:45A. Kotiash2.253611141M. Slozka1.5711119163LOct 9 · 23:15A. Kotiash2.10511891V. Moshovskyi1.6711611113WOct 9 · 21:45A. Kotiash2.38481113113O. Gazhula1.53111171172WOct 9 · 20:15A. Kotiash2.631011119113I. Fashchevskyi1.4412891162LOct 6 · 11:00A. Kotiash2.001113731O. Volynets1.73131111113WOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 08:00A. Kotiash1.67613116113A. Kurtenko2.10111171192
V. Korobko10
LOct 11 · 06:25V. Korobko2.75187441D. Palii1.40161111113WOct 11 · 05:25R. Andrishak2.3811712842V. Korobko1.534111011113LOct 10 · 02:15A. Kotiash2.2511712113V. Korobko1.578111061WOct 10 · 01:15V. Korobko2.101111113V. Moshovskyi1.678860LOct 10 · 00:15V. Korobko1.8010890I. Fashchevskyi1.911211113LOct 9 · 22:45V. Korobko2.2066110M. Slozka1.611111133WOct 9 · 20:45V. Korobko1.73771111113O. Gazhula2.0011115982LOct 3 · 01:48D. Palii1.611211113V. Korobko2.2010780LOct 3 · 00:45O. Sydorchuk2.25101411113V. Korobko1.571212671WOct 2 · 23:15V. Korobko2.751111113D. Palii1.407770
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