TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Roman Guliak vs Filip Zurek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113711115116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Guliak above · Filip Zurek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Filip Zurek at 62.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Roman Guliak 9–11 Filip Zurek Roman Guliak has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5762.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zurek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Zurek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guliak 1390 vs Zurek 1441
Zurek
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guliak 60% vs Zurek 40%
Guliak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guliak 30% vs Zurek 50%
Zurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guliak +1 · Zurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Zurek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuliak 2.375 / Zurek 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Zurek)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275740
Guliak2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 72 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Zurek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it73% 70 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuliak4wins
AwayZurek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderZurek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZurek50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guliak2Zurek8n = 10Zurek took 8 of 10
S2Guliak5Zurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Guliak6Zurek4n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10
S4Guliak4Zurek5n = 9Zurek took 5 of 9
S5Guliak3Zurek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuliakZurekG − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.4−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuliakZurekBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 694 vs 332 / 65749.3%50.5%342 / 694 vs 332 / 657Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZurekGuliak 2.38/Zurek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Zurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:30R. Guliak32711951F. Zurek4211911113
WOct 5 · 20:00R. Guliak47581211113F. Zurek50111110992
LOct 2 · 15:00R. Guliak30661171F. Zurek3811115113
LSep 26 · 09:30R. Guliak3811611462F. Zurek46511811113
LSep 26 · 07:00R. Guliak249960F. Zurek331111113
WSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak529111011113F. Zurek4511812862
LAug 21 · 09:30R. Guliak4771191462F. Zurek541191112113
LAug 21 · 06:30R. Guliak4211711672F. Zurek48711811113
WAug 20 · 09:30R. Guliak44611115113F. Zurek3811721172
WAug 20 · 06:30R. Guliak4071111113F. Zurek30115591
R. Guliak10
WOct 11 · 19:30M. Jasek1.5781111111R. Guliak2.2511138133LOct 11 · 18:00R. Guliak2.755760V. Bosak1.401111113WOct 10 · 09:09R. Kvasnicka1.201171351R. Guliak4.3381115113LOct 10 · 08:30R. Kvasnicka2.25941312143R. Guliak1.5711111110122WOct 10 · 07:30R. Guliak1.611111123I. Taichman2.2077100LOct 10 · 06:30F. Zurek1.6711911113R. Guliak2.10711951LOct 8 · 20:59M. Jasek1.617111111113R. Guliak2.2011134582LOct 8 · 20:00R. Guliak2.1011410101A. Schneeberger1.6771112123LOct 8 · 19:30P. Hanel1.331111113R. Guliak3.259560LOct 8 · 18:00R. Guliak2.381111871M. Jasek1.5313811113
F. Zurek10
LOct 11 · 19:00V. Bosak1.5361111113F. Zurek2.38117681WOct 11 · 18:30F. Zurek1.571112113M. Jasek2.2591050WOct 10 · 13:02F. Zurek1.7781113113I. Taichman1.951181121LOct 10 · 12:30V. Bosak1.6111911113F. Zurek2.20711981LOct 10 · 11:30F. Zurek2.63121246102P. Hanel1.4410101111123WOct 10 · 10:30I. Taichman2.106880F. Zurek1.671111113LOct 10 · 09:30F. Zurek1.5211133962I. Taichman2.355111111113LOct 10 · 08:00I. Taichman2.5011118113F. Zurek1.50861191WOct 10 · 07:00R. Kvasnicka1.731110811102F. Zurek2.00712118123WOct 10 · 06:30F. Zurek1.6711911113R. Guliak2.10711951
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