TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Roman Guliak vs Milan Jasek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113118811711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMilan Jasek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Guliak above · Milan Jasek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Milan Jasek at 60.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Roman Guliak 17–20 Milan Jasek Roman Guliak has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5360.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jasek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Jasek
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guliak 1419 vs Jasek 1420
Jasek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guliak 40% vs Jasek 80%
Jasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guliak 50% vs Jasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guliak -1 · Jasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Jasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuliak 2.375 / Jasek 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Jasek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258526
Guliak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 73 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 69
Jasek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 37 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuliak3wins
AwayJasek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJasek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuliak60%3 of 5
AwayJasek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guliak5Jasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Guliak4Jasek6n = 10Jasek took 6 of 10
S3Guliak4Jasek6n = 10Jasek took 6 of 10
S4Guliak0Jasek7n = 7Jasek took 7 of 7
S5Guliak2Jasek1n = 3Guliak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuliakJasekG − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.9−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuliakJasekBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 684 vs 127 / 26449.6%48.1%339 / 684 vs 127 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JasekGuliak 2.38/Jasek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Jasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 21:28R. Guliak196580M. Jasek331111113
LOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak34119861M. Jasek4181111113
WSep 22 · 19:00R. Guliak351113113M. Jasek2281130
LAug 16 · 07:00R. Guliak52714138102M. Jasek5711121111123
LJul 21 · 20:58R. Guliak399118111M. Jasek4211711133
WJul 21 · 18:30R. Guliak51119117133M. Jasek44611511112
LJul 19 · 07:00R. Guliak1851030M. Jasek341112113
LJul 18 · 08:30R. Guliak28313751M. Jasek44111111113
LJul 14 · 20:58R. Guliak31115871M. Jasek4071111113
WJul 14 · 20:30R. Guliak43117113113M. Jasek4261191152
R. Guliak10
LOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580WOct 6 · 20:00M. Kowolowski1.6118771162R. Guliak2.201611118113WOct 6 · 19:00I. Taichman2.108860R. Guliak1.671111113LOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113LOct 5 · 21:30P. Hanel1.3651111113R. Guliak3.00119921WOct 5 · 20:00R. Guliak2.38581211113F. Zurek1.53111110992LOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:00R. Guliak1.831111113I. Taichman1.836480LOct 3 · 17:13R. Guliak1.8381161222V. Bosak1.831141110113WOct 3 · 16:30R. Guliak3.0011115183V. Bosak1.367711161
M. Jasek10
WOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580LOct 6 · 20:30I. Taichman1.5711119113M. Jasek2.25781161WOct 6 · 19:30M. Jasek2.381111113M. Kowolowski1.535680WOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113WSep 27 · 12:59D. Priesol3.2510870M. Jasek1.331211113LSep 27 · 12:00F. Zurek1.6111611113M. Jasek2.20511661LSep 27 · 11:00T. Hrabec1.831111103M. Jasek1.838860WSep 27 · 10:30M. Jasek1.401111113D. Priesol2.758550LSep 25 · 21:30T. Kraninger1.501111113M. Jasek2.405580WSep 25 · 20:00M. Jasek2.201111113J. Peter1.616770
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