TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Kvasnicka vs Roman Guliak 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911411131112101412
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:09 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Guliak to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Roman Guliak @ 1.57 · Lost
How it is goingRadim Kvasnicka above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 107 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Roman Guliak at 54.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Radim Kvasnicka 1–4 Roman Guliak Radim Kvasnicka has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:09Sent to Pro: Roman Guliak @ 1.57 · Lost
54.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 9.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Guliak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Guliak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kvasnicka 1458 vs Guliak 1373
Kvasnicka
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kvasnicka 40% vs Guliak 20%
Kvasnicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kvasnicka 60% vs Guliak 30%
Kvasnicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kvasnicka -3 · Guliak +1
Kvasnicka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Guliak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKvasnicka 2.25 / Guliak 1.571
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Guliak)-9.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269111
Kvasnicka2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Guliak1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 46 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKvasnicka1wins
AwayGuliak4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderGuliak leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKvasnickan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGuliak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kvasnicka1Guliak4n = 5Guliak took 4 of 5
S2Kvasnicka0Guliak5n = 5Guliak took 5 of 5
S3Kvasnicka3Guliak2n = 5Kvasnicka took 3 of 5
S4Kvasnicka1Guliak2n = 3Guliak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKvasnickaGuliakK − GBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match33.642.8−9.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKvasnickaGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 131 vs 340 / 69155.7%49.2%73 / 131 vs 340 / 691Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GuliakKvasnicka 2.25/Guliak 1.57
Miss
What we said
54.5%
Guliak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Roman Guliak @ 1.57 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Kvasnicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 10 · 08:30R. Kvasnicka52941312143R. Guliak5511111110122
LJul 18 · 13:28R. Kvasnicka331081231R. Guliak44121110113
LJul 18 · 10:30R. Kvasnicka4311911482R. Guliak47511911113
LJul 18 · 08:58R. Kvasnicka174670R. Guliak331111113
LJul 18 · 06:30R. Kvasnicka2351170R. Guliak351113113
R. Kvasnicka10
LOct 10 · 09:09R. Kvasnicka1.201171351R. Guliak4.3381115113LOct 10 · 07:00R. Kvasnicka1.731110811102F. Zurek2.00712118123LOct 10 · 06:00I. Taichman1.73691211113R. Kvasnicka2.00111110752LOct 3 · 21:30R. Kvasnicka1.5711411872D. Priesol2.25611811113WOct 3 · 20:00L. Jemelka1.6181111101R. Kvasnicka2.2011132123WOct 3 · 19:00M. Kolek2.7561070R. Kvasnicka1.401112113WOct 3 · 18:30R. Kvasnicka1.5781211113D. Priesol2.251110581LOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:00R. Kvasnicka1.501112113M. Kolek2.5051050WOct 3 · 07:30A. Schneeberger2.63911111152R. Kvasnicka1.44111398113
R. Guliak10
WOct 10 · 09:09R. Kvasnicka1.201171351R. Guliak4.3381115113WOct 10 · 07:30R. Guliak1.611111123I. Taichman2.2077100LOct 10 · 06:30F. Zurek1.6711911113R. Guliak2.10711951LOct 8 · 20:59M. Jasek1.617111111113R. Guliak2.2011134582LOct 8 · 20:00R. Guliak2.1011410101A. Schneeberger1.6771112123LOct 8 · 19:30P. Hanel1.331111113R. Guliak3.259560LOct 8 · 18:00R. Guliak2.381111871M. Jasek1.5313811113LOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580WOct 6 · 20:00M. Kowolowski1.6118771162R. Guliak2.201611118113WOct 6 · 19:00I. Taichman2.108860R. Guliak1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Kvasnicka
Nothing scheduled
R. Guliak
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.