TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Sporek vs Dawid Jadam 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611116711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:34 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeSzymon Sporek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Dawid Jadam below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Szymon Sporek at 60.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 2–1 Dawid Jadam Dawid Jadam has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jadam beat Sporek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3460.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sporek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1718 vs Jadam 1664
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 40% vs Jadam 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Jadam 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +2 · Jadam -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Sporek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.533 / Jadam 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Sporek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274519
Sporek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 98 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it79% 81 of 102
Jadam2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSporek2wins
AwayJadam1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSporek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek2Jadam1n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
S2Sporek2Jadam1n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
S3Sporek2Jadam1n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSporekJadamS − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.734.7+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekJadamBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 770 vs 166 / 33749.9%49.3%384 / 770 vs 166 / 337Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SporekSporek 1.53/Jadam 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek4571191172D. Jadam50118119113
WJul 8 · 15:45S. Sporek331111113D. Jadam198650
WJul 7 · 16:55S. Sporek4111811113D. Jadam35811881
S. Sporek10
WOct 11 · 00:10M. Kolek2.607121171S. Sporek1.4111148113WOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83411811113J. Chmielowski1.8311511772LOct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek1.6171191172D. Jadam2.20118119113LOct 10 · 18:50S. Sporek1.44711111192M. Kolek2.63118137113LOct 10 · 17:40S. Sporek2.00741171F. Mlynarski1.7311117113WOct 10 · 16:05S. Sporek1.831411123J. Chmielowski1.83127100WOct 10 · 15:00S. Sporek1.911111113K. Kolodziej1.809650LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752
D. Jadam10
WOct 11 · 00:35D. Jadam1.8311126113F. Mlynarski1.839101161LOct 10 · 22:35D. Jadam1.8011119882J. Chmielowski1.91991111113LOct 10 · 21:50M. Kolek1.91119118113D. Jadam1.8041181152WOct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek1.6171191172D. Jadam2.20118119113LOct 10 · 19:15D. Jadam3.254430K. Kolodziej1.331111113WOct 10 · 18:05M. Kolek2.00811591D. Jadam1.7311811113LOct 10 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.8015116113D. Jadam1.911361171LOct 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski1.731111113D. Jadam2.005880WSep 14 · 00:10D. Jadam2.389111110113M. Rutkowski1.5311551252WSep 13 · 23:20D. Jadam1.8011511113F. Mlynarski1.91811781
Upcoming Matches
S. Sporek
Oct 11 · 15:25S. Sporek—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 16:55S. Sporek—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 18:05S. Sporek—J. Chmielowski——Oct 11 · 19:15S. Sporek—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 20:30S. Sporek—F. Mlynarski——Oct 11 · 21:25S. Sporek—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 21:50S. Sporek—J. Chmielowski——Oct 11 · 23:20S. Sporek—F. Mlynarski——Oct 12 · 00:10S. Sporek—K. Staszczyk——
D. Jadam
Oct 11 · 15:45D. Jadam—J. Chmielowski——Oct 11 · 16:55D. Jadam—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 17:40D. Jadam—F. Mlynarski——Oct 11 · 18:30D. Jadam—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 20:05D. Jadam—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 21:25D. Jadam—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 22:10D. Jadam—F. Mlynarski——Oct 11 · 22:55D. Jadam—K. Staszczyk——Oct 12 · 00:35D. Jadam—J. Chmielowski——
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