TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Grzegorz Adamiak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111171195111012
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:29 and never touched: 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 93 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Dawid Michna at 63.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 20–11 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2963.5%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.7pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Michna
Wrong
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1893 vs Adamiak 1742
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Adamiak 20%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 60% vs Adamiak 20%
Michna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +1 · Adamiak -4
Adamiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.533 / Adamiak 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Michna)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13272824
Michna1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 68 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Adamiak2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 61 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna8wins
AwayAdamiak2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna100%7 of 7
AwayAdamiak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Adamiak3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Michna5Adamiak5n = 10split evenly
S3Michna9Adamiak1n = 10Michna took 9 of 10
S4Michna3Adamiak2n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
S5Michna2Adamiak1n = 3Michna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaAdamiakM − ABasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.232.5+4.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 930 vs 326 / 76053.9%42.9%501 / 930 vs 326 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.53/Adamiak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.5%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:30D. Michna43611115102G. Adamiak50117911123
WJul 28 · 13:45D. Michna341111123G. Adamiak2358100
WJul 28 · 08:30D. Michna3911611113G. Adamiak30911641
WJun 14 · 13:40D. Michna46119114113G. Adamiak4181151162
WJun 14 · 09:35D. Michna361111143G. Adamiak2668120
WJun 13 · 12:50D. Michna4011711113G. Adamiak32711681
WJun 13 · 09:10D. Michna341211113G. Adamiak2510690
LMay 10 · 12:00D. Michna2266100G. Adamiak341111123
WMay 10 · 04:20D. Michna45571111113G. Adamiak4111116762
WMar 29 · 05:05D. Michna331111113G. Adamiak237790
D. Michna10
WOct 10 · 05:15D. Michna1.6710111110113S. Kolasa2.1012991292LOct 10 · 04:10K. Petas1.671112113D. Michna2.1071080WOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942LOct 9 · 15:25J. Zandecki1.6711118173D. Michna2.109611151LOct 9 · 14:35D. Wederlich1.671111113D. Michna2.104990LOct 9 · 12:30P. David1.50891111113D. Michna2.5011117992WOct 9 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.83139891D. Michna1.83111111113WOct 9 · 10:00A. Witkowski1.671712741D. Michna2.10151411113WOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113WOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.7312591152D. Michna2.001011116113
G. Adamiak10
LOct 10 · 05:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75931121LOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak2.254790T. Spanik1.571111113WSep 27 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.6712880G. Adamiak2.101411113LSep 27 · 11:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75991141LSep 27 · 10:50G. Adamiak2.201210811112M. Miastowski1.611012115133LSep 27 · 09:40G. Adamiak2.759360M. Jadczyk1.401111113WSep 27 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.73911911112G. Adamiak2.00113114133LSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak2.38911391T. Spanik1.5311911113
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