TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Adamiak vs Tibor Spanik 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711611811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:46 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Tibor Spanik at 62.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 5–8 Tibor Spanik Grzegorz Adamiak has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4662.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Spanik
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1731 vs Spanik 1872
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 20% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 20% vs Spanik 50%
Spanik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -2 · Spanik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Spanik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.25 / Spanik 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Spanik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268614
Adamiak2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 61 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Spanik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 141 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it95% 69 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 103 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak3wins
AwaySpanik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak33.3%1 of 3
AwaySpanik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S2Adamiak3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Adamiak4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S4Adamiak4Spanik5n = 9Spanik took 5 of 9
S5Adamiak2Spanik1n = 3Adamiak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakSpanikA − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.740.7−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 758 vs 263 / 47642.9%55.3%325 / 758 vs 263 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikAdamiak 2.25/Spanik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak33127681T. Spanik43101111113
LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak204790T. Spanik331111113
LSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak32911391T. Spanik4211911113
WSep 26 · 10:00G. Adamiak44561111113T. Spanik4211119562
LSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak37891191T. Spanik4211119113
LApr 26 · 15:10G. Adamiak4387111522T. Spanik541111813113
WApr 26 · 08:25G. Adamiak4391112113T. Spanik351181061
WApr 25 · 10:00G. Adamiak47119511113T. Spanik4071111562
LApr 25 · 07:40G. Adamiak29119451T. Spanik4071111113
LApr 12 · 11:10G. Adamiak29911451T. Spanik3611311113
G. Adamiak10
LOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak2.254790T. Spanik1.571111113WSep 27 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.6712880G. Adamiak2.101411113LSep 27 · 11:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75991141LSep 27 · 10:50G. Adamiak2.201210811112M. Miastowski1.611012115133LSep 27 · 09:40G. Adamiak2.759360M. Jadczyk1.401111113WSep 27 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.73911911112G. Adamiak2.00113114133LSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak2.38911391T. Spanik1.5311911113LSep 27 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.3611115113G. Adamiak3.00891181LSep 27 · 04:55M. Miastowski1.531111133G. Adamiak2.3884110
T. Spanik10
LOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942WOct 2 · 17:09T. Spanik2.38136125103M. Obeslo1.531111101122WSep 28 · 14:10G. Felkel1.83711741T. Spanik1.8311311113WSep 28 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.735101191T. Spanik2.0011129113LSep 28 · 11:15K. Petas2.1011119113T. Spanik1.67571171WSep 28 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.206950T. Spanik1.611111113LSep 28 · 09:00P. Chodorski1.831111123T. Spanik1.8325100WSep 28 · 08:05P. Chodorski1.83911831T. Spanik1.8311411113WSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak2.254790T. Spanik1.571111113WSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak2.38911391T. Spanik1.5311911113
Upcoming Matches
G. Adamiak
T. Spanik
Oct 10 · 06:05T. Spanik2.10P. Cyrnek1.67—Oct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83S. Kolasa1.83—Oct 10 · 08:30T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—Oct 10 · 09:40T. Spanik1.53K. Kolodziej2.38—Oct 10 · 10:25T. Spanik1.83S. Kolasa1.83—Oct 10 · 12:05T. Spanik1.57G. Adamiak2.25—Oct 10 · 12:55T. Spanik2.10P. Cyrnek1.67—Oct 10 · 13:45T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—
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