TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Szymon Kolasa 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121191191012119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:14 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Szymon Kolasa at 57.4%
104 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 22–27 Szymon Kolasa Dawid Michna has won 22 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1457.4%Our read47.6%to break even at 2.10
clears by 9.8pp47.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.10 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-27 in 49
Kolasa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1899 vs Kolasa 1869
Michna
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Kolasa 60%
Kolasa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 60% vs Kolasa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Kolasa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kolasa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.666 / Kolasa 2.10
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kolasa)+9.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13272763
Michna1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 68 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Kolasa2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back34% 25 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna3wins
AwayKolasa7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna42.9%3 of 7
AwayKolasa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Kolasa3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Michna4Kolasa6n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S3Michna4Kolasa6n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S4Michna1Kolasa7n = 8Kolasa took 7 of 8
S5Michna1Kolasa2n = 3Kolasa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaKolasaM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.241.4−3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 928 vs 248 / 46453.9%53.5%500 / 928 vs 248 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaMichna 1.67/Kolasa 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 09:40D. Michna2991190S. Kolasa351113113
LAug 27 · 03:25D. Michna4012411762S. Kolasa491011611113
LAug 26 · 13:20D. Michna3811410131S. Kolasa3911112153
WAug 26 · 05:15D. Michna48111169113S. Kolasa4798111182
LJul 15 · 07:20D. Michna4381111762S. Kolasa51119911113
WJul 14 · 07:45D. Michna381111163S. Kolasa3198140
LJul 7 · 07:20D. Michna351171161S. Kolasa3831113113
LJul 6 · 04:30D. Michna4314811101S. Kolasa4416115123
LJun 18 · 12:05D. Michna31134951S. Kolasa44111111113
WJun 18 · 05:15D. Michna3712113113S. Kolasa361091161
D. Michna10
LOct 10 · 04:10K. Petas1.671112113D. Michna2.1071080WOct 10 · 03:25D. Michna1.671081111113T. Spanik2.1012117942LOct 9 · 15:25J. Zandecki1.6711118173D. Michna2.109611151LOct 9 · 14:35D. Wederlich1.671111113D. Michna2.104990LOct 9 · 12:30P. David1.50891111113D. Michna2.5011117992WOct 9 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.83139891D. Michna1.83111111113WOct 9 · 10:00A. Witkowski1.671712741D. Michna2.10151411113WOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113WOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.7312591152D. Michna2.001011116113WOct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73116591D. Michna2.0081111113
S. Kolasa10
WOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113LOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981WSep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa1.9112118133J. Zandecki1.8010911111LSep 24 · 12:30A. Daniel2.25891211113S. Kolasa1.57111110782WSep 24 · 11:40P. David1.53881191S. Kolasa2.3811115113WSep 24 · 10:50S. Kolasa1.6711117123K. Kolodziej2.105911101LSep 24 · 09:40S. Kolasa2.00781381A. Grela1.73111111113LSep 24 · 08:30S. Kolasa2.0031111762A. Grela1.73117811113WSep 24 · 06:55S. Kolasa1.9115611113P. David1.801311981LSep 24 · 05:40S. Kolasa1.91911911102A. Abbasi1.80119118123
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