TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Erik Precek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1187111012117711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:41 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 58.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–2 Erik Precek Erik Precek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4158.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Dzida
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1538 vs Precek 1567
Precek
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Precek 60%
Precek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 30% vs Precek 70%
Precek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -3 · Precek +1
Dzida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Precek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.615 / Precek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dzida)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271791
Dzida1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Precek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 66 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayPrecek2wins
Dzida leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida75%3 of 4
AwayPrecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida4Precek2n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S2Dzida2Precek4n = 6Precek took 4 of 6
S3Dzida4Precek2n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S4Dzida3Precek1n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDzidaPrecekD − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match34.832.2+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 255 vs 240 / 51053.3%47.1%136 / 255 vs 240 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.61/Precek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Precek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 2 · 12:15L. Dzida4113611113E. Precek341111841
WSep 27 · 10:15L. Dzida4181111113E. Precek30117751
WAug 30 · 08:49L. Dzida331111113E. Precek216870
WAug 30 · 05:45L. Dzida3811511113E. Precek32511881
LAug 15 · 17:20L. Dzida1841040E. Precek341112113
LAug 15 · 15:40L. Dzida38119991E. Precek4291111113
L. Dzida10
LOct 10 · 10:45L. Dzida1.80101360O. Bolcarovic1.911215113LOct 10 · 09:45L. Dzida1.507620T. Molin2.501111113LOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 12:15L. Kantor2.00841641L. Dzida1.73111114113WOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113WOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 15:10L. Dzida2.109970D. Skulina1.671111113LOct 5 · 13:40F. Chaloupka1.67111011113L. Dzida2.10412751
E. Precek10
LOct 10 · 11:15T. Molin2.2511128113E. Precek1.576101151WOct 10 · 10:15E. Precek1.613111113113O. Bolcarovic2.2011681562LOct 2 · 13:18T. Krenek1.831111113E. Precek1.836690LOct 2 · 12:15E. Precek1.911111841L. Dzida1.8013611113WOct 2 · 10:45M. Macurak1.57115861E. Precek2.2591111113WOct 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73891111102E. Precek2.00111187123WOct 2 · 09:20M. Raska2.3891090E. Precek1.531112113WOct 2 · 07:45R. Sedlacek1.53611118102E. Precek2.38113811123WOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113LOct 2 · 06:15E. Precek1.6111101151L. Lasota2.2041213113
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