TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Kantor vs Lukas Dzida 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8114111614411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kantor above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 79 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kantor 1–4 Lukas Dzida Lukas Kantor has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Dzida
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kantor 1583 vs Dzida 1564
Kantor
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kantor 100% vs Dzida 40%
Kantor
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kantor 60% vs Dzida 40%
Kantor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kantor +5 · Dzida +1
Kantor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKantor 2.00 / Dzida 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256714
Kantor2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Dzida1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 56 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKantor1wins
AwayDzida4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderDzida leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKantor33.3%1 of 3
AwayDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kantor3Dzida2n = 5Kantor took 3 of 5
S2Kantor2Dzida3n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S3Kantor2Dzida3n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S4Kantor2Dzida2n = 4split evenly
S5Kantor0Dzida3n = 3Dzida took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKantorDzidaK − DBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.242.8−8.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKantorDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 394 vs 135 / 25150.5%53.8%199 / 394 vs 135 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaKantor 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 3 · 07:10L. Kantor3411371122L. Dzida49811118113
WJul 6 · 12:35L. Kantor3811511113L. Dzida36911971
LJul 6 · 12:10L. Kantor209650L. Dzida331111113
LJun 30 · 12:45L. Kantor3631111832L. Dzida45117511113
LJun 30 · 11:45L. Kantor43111147102L. Dzida51981111123
L. Kantor10
WOct 7 · 12:48L. Kantor1.5091111163T. Kindl2.501149141WOct 7 · 10:45R. Benes1.5711681182L. Kantor2.25811113113WOct 7 · 10:15T. Kindl1.67115561L. Kantor2.1041111113WOct 7 · 09:13L. Kantor1.671211113T. Kindl2.1010630WOct 7 · 07:45T. Kindl1.9111811952L. Kantor1.80411911113WOct 7 · 07:15L. Lasota1.8381111592L. Kantor1.83115811113LOct 7 · 06:15L. Kantor2.10118131152D. Pawlik1.67411157113LSep 30 · 12:44L. Kantor2.207990L. Slavik1.611111113LSep 30 · 12:15T. Krenek1.9181111113L. Kantor1.80114351LSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113
L. Dzida10
LOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113WOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 15:10L. Dzida2.109970D. Skulina1.671111113LOct 5 · 13:40F. Chaloupka1.67111011113L. Dzida2.10412751WOct 4 · 16:46R. Solle1.9159100L. Dzida1.801111123WOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771LOct 4 · 14:40L. Dzida2.00911881D. Velky Jr1.7311611113
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