TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Tomas Molin 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611211––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Lukas Dzida @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 48 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 64.1%
48 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 6–1 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:56Sent to Pro: Lukas Dzida @ 1.50 · Lost
64.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Dzida
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1566 vs Molin 1557
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -1 · Molin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.50 / Molin 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Dzida)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271808
Dzida1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Molin2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDzida6wins
AwayMolin1wins
3 of 7 to a deciderDzida leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida100%4 of 4
AwayMolin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida4Molin3n = 7Dzida took 4 of 7
S2Dzida5Molin2n = 7Dzida took 5 of 7
S3Dzida3Molin4n = 7Molin took 4 of 7
S4Dzida4Molin2n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S5Dzida3Molin0n = 3Dzida took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricDzidaMolinD − MBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.136.9+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 253 vs 169 / 32253.8%52.5%136 / 253 vs 169 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.50/Molin 2.50
Miss
What we said
64.1%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Dzida @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 27 · 15:45L. Dzida331111113T. Molin186570
WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida48411911133T. Molin49118118112
WSep 2 · 14:15L. Dzida4291111113T. Molin32118851
WAug 15 · 15:10L. Dzida45113911113T. Molin4371111772
WJul 29 · 10:40L. Dzida41112115123T. Molin44511711102
LJul 24 · 13:19L. Dzida326111051T. Molin3711312113
WJul 24 · 10:45L. Dzida4011117113T. Molin35961191
L. Dzida10
LOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 12:15L. Kantor2.00841641L. Dzida1.73111114113WOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113WOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 15:10L. Dzida2.109970D. Skulina1.671111113LOct 5 · 13:40F. Chaloupka1.67111011113L. Dzida2.10412751WOct 4 · 16:46R. Solle1.9159100L. Dzida1.801111123WOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771
T. Molin10
LOct 9 · 17:15R. Benes1.501113113T. Molin2.5081180WOct 9 · 16:10T. Molin1.57119139113L. Kantor2.25911111152WOct 9 · 14:40T. Fojtik1.739290T. Molin2.001111113LOct 9 · 14:10R. Benes1.731211113T. Molin2.0010690LOct 4 · 12:50T. Molin2.7591611692B. Mrowetz1.401114811113LOct 4 · 12:15J. Travnicek1.73111111113T. Molin2.00813971LOct 4 · 11:15T. Molin2.63581191J. Krupnik1.4411119113WOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113WSep 27 · 21:10D. Branny2.109101861T. Molin1.67111216113LSep 27 · 19:45D. Branny2.38881212113T. Molin1.531111101072
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