TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Komar vs Serhii Kushnirenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
81111714121311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Komar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 87 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Vadim Komar at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 26–20 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Komar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-20 in 46
Komar
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1857 vs Kushnirenko 1882
Kushnirenko
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 40% vs Kushnirenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 50% vs Kushnirenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -1 · Kushnirenko -3
Kushnirenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Komar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 1.80 / Kushnirenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Komar)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271267
Komar1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 42 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Kushnirenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 142 of 412
Down 0–1, comes back18% 45 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar4wins
AwayKushnirenko6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar60%3 of 5
AwayKushnirenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Komar3Kushnirenko7n = 10Kushnirenko took 7 of 10
S3Komar6Kushnirenko4n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S4Komar2Kushnirenko6n = 8Kushnirenko took 6 of 8
S5Komar3Kushnirenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarKushnirenkoKomar − KushnirenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.142.6−0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 615 vs 321 / 78038.7%41.2%238 / 615 vs 321 / 780Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KomarKomar 1.80/Kushnirenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Komar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar45111111572S. Kushnirenko46513611113
LSep 23 · 14:00V. Komar46511111272S. Kushnirenko51118714113
LSep 22 · 17:28V. Komar3191750S. Kushnirenko411119113
WSep 22 · 14:00V. Komar4211119113S. Kushnirenko30931171
LSep 19 · 06:00V. Komar378811101S. Kushnirenko4311119123
WSep 18 · 14:00V. Komar51116138133S. Kushnirenko506111111112
LSep 12 · 09:00V. Komar229580S. Kushnirenko331111113
WSep 11 · 14:00V. Komar50712911113S. Kushnirenko40111011442
WSep 9 · 14:00V. Komar501161111113S. Kushnirenko4381151362
LSep 8 · 14:00V. Komar47118111072S. Kushnirenko49811712113
V. Komar10
LOct 10 · 06:30V. Komar2.50441241I. Shyndel1.50111110113WOct 10 · 05:00V. Komar2.3891112113D. Kryshtal1.531151031LOct 9 · 17:34V. Komar1.8012711542S. Balabei1.911011911103LOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar1.80111111572S. Kushnirenko1.91513611113WOct 9 · 15:00S. Balabei1.6111471192V. Komar2.20911115113WOct 9 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.53811114102V. Komar2.38118711123LOct 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5311117113V. Komar2.38961191WOct 8 · 10:33D. Kryshtal1.618790V. Komar2.201111113WOct 8 · 09:30S. Kiilo3.009111171V. Komar1.3611813113LOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113
S. Kushnirenko10
WOct 10 · 09:00S. Kushnirenko2.10111110113D. Kryshtal1.67881291LOct 10 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.031111113S. Kushnirenko10.006860LOct 10 · 05:30I. Shyndel1.83111111113S. Kushnirenko1.83813551LOct 9 · 17:11S. Kushnirenko2.00135111272D. Kryshtal1.731111814113WOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar1.80111111572S. Kushnirenko1.91513611113WOct 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.57810111282S. Kushnirenko2.251112510113WOct 9 · 13:00I. Shyndel1.67911581S. Kushnirenko2.1011811113LOct 9 · 12:00S. Balabei1.361111108113S. Kushnirenko3.0038121142WSep 23 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.739912121S. Kushnirenko2.00111110143LSep 23 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.2077111142R. Horokh1.61111137113
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