TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Komar vs Dmytro Kryshtal 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111151210113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:54 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 72 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 61.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 34–49 Dmytro Kryshtal Vadim Komar has won 34 of their 83 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Kryshtal beat Komar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5461.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kryshtal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-49 in 83
Kryshtal
Wrong
gap of 15 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1856 vs Kryshtal 1883
Kryshtal
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 40% vs Kryshtal 80%
Kryshtal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 40% vs Kryshtal 60%
Kryshtal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -2 · Kryshtal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Kryshtal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 2.375 / Kryshtal 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kryshtal)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271667
Komar2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back27% 26 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Kryshtal1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 161 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it94% 88 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it77% 124 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar3wins
AwayKryshtal7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKryshtal leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar75%3 of 4
AwayKryshtal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar4Kryshtal6n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S2Komar3Kryshtal7n = 10Kryshtal took 7 of 10
S3Komar5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S4Komar1Kryshtal6n = 7Kryshtal took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarKryshtalKomar − KryshtalBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.137.0−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 613 vs 358 / 82338.7%43.5%237 / 613 vs 358 / 823Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKomar 2.38/Kryshtal 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 12:30V. Komar35961191D. Kryshtal4011117113
WOct 8 · 10:33V. Komar331111113D. Kryshtal248790
LOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar247980D. Kryshtal331111113
LOct 7 · 16:30V. Komar32861171D. Kryshtal3811115113
WOct 3 · 10:30V. Komar4211117133D. Kryshtal335611111
LOct 3 · 05:30V. Komar34118691D. Kryshtal4181111113
WSep 30 · 09:30V. Komar501151112113D. Kryshtal4651191472
LSep 26 · 06:00V. Komar26771111D. Kryshtal3911116113
LSep 23 · 16:00V. Komar347116101D. Kryshtal4311911123
LSep 22 · 12:30V. Komar215880D. Kryshtal331111113
V. Komar10
LOct 9 · 17:34V. Komar1.8012711542S. Balabei1.911011911103LOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar1.80111111572S. Kushnirenko1.91513611113WOct 9 · 15:00S. Balabei1.6111471192V. Komar2.20911115113WOct 9 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.53811114102V. Komar2.38118711123LOct 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5311117113V. Komar2.38961191WOct 8 · 10:33D. Kryshtal1.618790V. Komar2.201111113WOct 8 · 09:30S. Kiilo3.009111171V. Komar1.3611813113LOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113LOct 8 · 06:30V. Komar2.7546110R. Horokh1.401111133LOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar2.257980D. Kryshtal1.571111113
D. Kryshtal10
WOct 9 · 17:11S. Kushnirenko2.00135111272D. Kryshtal1.731111814113WOct 9 · 15:30I. Shyndel2.0051750D. Kryshtal1.731119113LOct 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.57810111282S. Kushnirenko2.251112510113WOct 9 · 13:30S. Balabei1.5011116121D. Kryshtal2.5013711143WOct 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5311117113V. Komar2.38961191LOct 8 · 10:33D. Kryshtal1.618790V. Komar2.201111113LOct 8 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.0612111213113D. Kryshtal8.00143141182LOct 8 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5011118133D. Kryshtal2.505911111WOct 8 · 06:00S. Kiilo3.758101281D. Kryshtal1.25111210113WOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar2.257980D. Kryshtal1.571111113
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