TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Dmytro Kryshtal 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121411312141311118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched: 91.0% is still 91.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.0%
91.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.0%
104 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 107–5 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 5 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5791.0%Our read94.2%to break even at 1.062
short by 3.2pp94.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.062 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
107-5 in 112
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 102 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1943 vs Kryshtal 1862
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Kryshtal 60%
Kryshtal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 50% vs Kryshtal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Kryshtal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.062 / Kryshtal 8.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261447
Ponomarenko1.06
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite86% won 277 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it99% 179 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it94% 228 of 243
Kryshtal8.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 70 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back10% 17 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko10wins
AwayKryshtal0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%6 of 6
AwayKryshtal0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Kryshtal4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko8Kryshtal2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko8Kryshtal2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Kryshtal1n = 5Ponomarenko took 4 of 5
S5Ponomarenko4Kryshtal0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalP − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.529.4+10.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime807 / 898 vs 354 / 81689.9%43.4%807 / 898 vs 354 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.06/Kryshtal 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 10:00S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal174850
WSep 26 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal269890
WSep 19 · 06:30S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal216870
WSep 18 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko521011911113D. Kryshtal3712411372
WSep 15 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko452101111113D. Kryshtal4411127862
WSep 12 · 10:29S. Ponomarenko461011311113D. Kryshtal3812711442
WSep 12 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko4011711113D. Kryshtal36911791
WSep 9 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko47911115113D. Kryshtal3711711172
WAug 29 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal214890
WAug 28 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal177460
S. Ponomarenko10
WOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113WOct 8 · 07:00S. Kiilo10.50116561S. Ponomarenko1.0251111113LOct 8 · 05:30R. Horokh4.3311511113S. Ponomarenko1.20811871LOct 1 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3.001110119123S. Ponomarenko1.36612911102LOct 1 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko1.0213126682E. Rubtsov10.5011101111113LOct 1 · 01:25S. Ponomarenko1.0712671172O. Mishchenko7.501011114113WSep 30 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko1.0611126113V. Kovalenko8.007101191WSep 30 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko1.045111011113O. Kovalchuk9.0011212942LSep 30 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.05121161172O. Mishchenko8.50149113113WSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123
D. Kryshtal10
LOct 8 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5011118133D. Kryshtal2.505911111WOct 8 · 06:00S. Kiilo3.758101281D. Kryshtal1.25111210113WOct 8 · 05:00V. Komar2.257980D. Kryshtal1.571111113WOct 7 · 16:30V. Komar2.38861171D. Kryshtal1.5311115113LOct 7 · 15:00D. Kryshtal2.5010980S. Balabei1.501211113LOct 7 · 13:30D. Kryshtal1.44101181272D. Yurkov2.631251110113LOct 7 · 12:00D. Kryshtal2.2548151172R. Horokh1.571111136113WOct 6 · 17:26S. Kiilo2.6311118492D. Kryshtal1.44991111113LOct 6 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.50913861R. Horokh1.50111111113WOct 6 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.361111113M. Levytskii3.004470
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