TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Chepurnyi vs Serhii Ponomarenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11610121199111210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:15 and never touched: 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 71.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 5–1 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Ponomarenko has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:1571.0%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 2.4pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1788 vs Ponomarenko 1956
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Chepurnyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 90% vs Ponomarenko 60%
Chepurnyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +4 · Ponomarenko -2
Chepurnyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 3.00 / Ponomarenko 1.363
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219333
Chepurnyi3.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Ponomarenko1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite87% won 303 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 253 of 267
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChepurnyi5wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%4 of 4
AwayPonomarenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi4Ponomarenko2n = 6Chepurnyi took 4 of 6
S2Chepurnyi3Ponomarenko3n = 6split evenly
S3Chepurnyi5Ponomarenko1n = 6Chepurnyi took 5 of 6
S4Chepurnyi4Ponomarenko1n = 5Chepurnyi took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChepurnyiPonomarenkoC − PBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match42.738.8+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 925 vs 805 / 89459%90%546 / 925 vs 805 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.22.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoChepurnyi 3.00/Ponomarenko 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi3741111113S. Ponomarenko34118871
WSep 23 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi4211119113S. Ponomarenko32661191
WAug 21 · 18:36A. Chepurnyi331111113S. Ponomarenko246990
WAug 21 · 14:55A. Chepurnyi4516711113S. Ponomarenko421411891
WAug 14 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi44114126113S. Ponomarenko44511101172
LAug 8 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi551410111192S. Ponomarenko57161299113
A. Chepurnyi10
WOct 1 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36951111123V. Kovalenko3.00111198102WOct 1 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi1.30118911173E. Rubtsov3.40911117152WSep 30 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.301111113O. Kovalchuk3.405380WSep 30 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.501112123O. Mishchenko2.50710100LSep 30 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi1.3678150O. Kovalchuk3.001111173WSep 30 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.331111143E. Rubtsov3.2522120WSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.53811711113O. Mishchenko2.3811811992WSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690WSep 27 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.831111113O. Gavryshko1.837650
S. Ponomarenko10
LOct 1 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko1.0213126682E. Rubtsov10.5011101111113LOct 1 · 01:25S. Ponomarenko1.0712671172O. Mishchenko7.501011114113WSep 30 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko1.0611126113V. Kovalenko8.007101191WSep 30 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko1.045111011113O. Kovalchuk9.0011212942LSep 30 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.05121161172O. Mishchenko8.50149113113WSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123LSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180WSep 29 · 22:25E. Rubtsov8.0011960S. Ponomarenko1.061311113WSep 26 · 10:00D. Kryshtal8.004850S. Ponomarenko1.061111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.