TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Chepurnyi vs Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111517––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:15 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Point 69 set 3, 15-17 · our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 73.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 78–34 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 34 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:1573.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Chepurnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
78-34 in 112
Chepurnyi
Wrong
gap of 44 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1761 vs Kovalchuk 1573
Chepurnyi
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 100% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 70% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +5 · Kovalchuk -2
Chepurnyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Chepurnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.363 / Kovalchuk 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Chepurnyi)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13213912
Chepurnyi1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 158 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it93% 79 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it83% 122 of 147
Kovalchuk3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%5 of 5
AwayKovalchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Chepurnyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Chepurnyi7Kovalchuk3n = 10Chepurnyi took 7 of 10
S4Chepurnyi4Kovalchuk3n = 7Chepurnyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiKovalchukC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.7+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 924 vs 327 / 77158.8%42.4%543 / 924 vs 327 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.36/Kovalchuk 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3078150O. Kovalchuk391111173
WSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi41611111123O. Kovalchuk47111196102
WAug 23 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi4011511133O. Kovalchuk399118111
LJul 23 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi4591011151O. Kovalchuk4711127173
WJul 21 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi331111113O. Kovalchuk199820
WJul 20 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi43111011113O. Kovalchuk31612851
WJul 17 · 19:25A. Chepurnyi341112113O. Kovalchuk2491050
WJul 2 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi4111118113O. Kovalchuk25261161
LJul 1 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi4011127101O. Kovalchuk46131011123
WJun 30 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi536111510113O. Kovalchuk50116131282
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 30 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.331111143E. Rubtsov3.2522120WSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.53811711113O. Mishchenko2.3811811992WSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690WSep 27 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.831111113O. Gavryshko1.837650LSep 27 · 02:25Y. Kryvorotko1.611111113A. Chepurnyi2.209540WSep 27 · 00:25O. Mishchenko2.5061170A. Chepurnyi1.501113113WSep 26 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.4491112113I. Demchenko2.631171031LSep 26 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko1.4411912143A. Chepurnyi2.6381110121LSep 25 · 19:25A. Chepurnyi2.505750O. Dukhovenko1.501111113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123LSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133WSep 29 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk1.73912212113E. Rubtsov2.001110111062LSep 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk2.20781141O. Mishchenko1.6111116113LSep 23 · 18:03O. Kovalchuk1.73117111182E. Rubtsov2.00911137113WSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113WSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi1.5792110O. Kovalchuk2.251111133WSep 23 · 13:35E. Rubtsov1.918840O. Kovalchuk1.801111113LSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113
Upcoming Matches
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