TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Serhii Kushnirenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched: 92.4% is still 92.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.4%
92.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.4%
53 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 63–1 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 1 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5492.4%Our read97.1%to break even at 1.03
short by 4.7pp97.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.03 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
63-1 in 64
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 62 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1998 vs Kushnirenko 1882
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kushnirenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kushnirenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Kushnirenko -2
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (10%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.03 / Kushnirenko 10.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270924
Ponomarenko1.03
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite86% won 281 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it99% 181 of 183
Up 1–0, closes it94% 230 of 245
Kushnirenko10.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 142 of 412
Down 0–1, comes back18% 45 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayKushnirenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko88.9%8 of 9
AwayKushnirenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko9Kushnirenko1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Kushnirenko1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko8Kushnirenko2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Kushnirenko1n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKushnirenkoP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.222.5+13.7per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime801 / 892 vs 321 / 78089.8%41.2%801 / 892 vs 321 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.03/Kushnirenko 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko206860
WSep 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko43101111113S. Kushnirenko23128211
WSep 21 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko4314711113S. Kushnirenko291211331
WSep 19 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko249960
WSep 18 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko175750
WSep 15 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko153750
WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko3711114113S. Kushnirenko24631141
WSep 9 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko175660
WJul 29 · 12:30S. Ponomarenko331111113S. Kushnirenko91620
LJul 28 · 05:30S. Ponomarenko4111117752S. Kushnirenko47771111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WOct 10 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.061115113D. Kryshtal8.0071350WOct 8 · 10:04S. Ponomarenko1.251111810113R. Horokh3.7558111262WOct 8 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.0612111213113D. Kryshtal8.00143141182WOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113WOct 8 · 07:00S. Kiilo10.50116561S. Ponomarenko1.0251111113LOct 8 · 05:30R. Horokh4.3311511113S. Ponomarenko1.20811871LOct 1 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3.001110119123S. Ponomarenko1.36612911102LOct 1 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko1.0213126682E. Rubtsov10.5011101111113LOct 1 · 01:25S. Ponomarenko1.0712671172O. Mishchenko7.501011114113WSep 30 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko1.0611126113V. Kovalenko8.007101191
S. Kushnirenko10
LOct 10 · 05:30I. Shyndel1.83111111113S. Kushnirenko1.83813551LOct 9 · 17:11S. Kushnirenko2.00135111272D. Kryshtal1.731111814113WOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar1.80111111572S. Kushnirenko1.91513611113WOct 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.57810111282S. Kushnirenko2.251112510113WOct 9 · 13:00I. Shyndel1.67911581S. Kushnirenko2.1011811113LOct 9 · 12:00S. Balabei1.361111108113S. Kushnirenko3.0038121142WSep 23 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.739912121S. Kushnirenko2.00111110143LSep 23 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.2077111142R. Horokh1.61111137113LSep 23 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko3.008880S. Balabei1.361111113WSep 23 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko1.91118714113V. Komar1.80511111272
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