TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Dmytro Kryshtal 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171513115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:59 and never touched: 91.0% is still 91.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.0%
91.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 62 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 109–5 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 5 of their 114 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5991.0%Our read94.2%to break even at 1.062
short by 3.2pp94.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.062 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
109-5 in 114
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 104 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1985 vs Kryshtal 1861
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kryshtal 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kryshtal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +4 · Kryshtal -1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.062 / Kryshtal 8.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270651
Ponomarenko1.06
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite86% won 281 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it99% 181 of 183
Up 1–0, closes it94% 230 of 245
Kryshtal8.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 71 of 264
Down 0–1, comes back10% 17 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko10wins
AwayKryshtal0wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%5 of 5
AwayKryshtal0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S2Ponomarenko8Kryshtal2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko7Kryshtal3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko5Kryshtal1n = 6Ponomarenko took 5 of 6
S5Ponomarenko5Kryshtal0n = 5Ponomarenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalP − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.533.1+9.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 891 vs 358 / 82589.8%43.4%800 / 891 vs 358 / 825Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.06/Kryshtal 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko371115113D. Kryshtal2571350
WOct 8 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko5912111213113D. Kryshtal50143141182
WSep 26 · 10:00S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal174850
WSep 26 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal269890
WSep 19 · 06:30S. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kryshtal216870
WSep 18 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko521011911113D. Kryshtal3712411372
WSep 15 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko452101111113D. Kryshtal4411127862
WSep 12 · 10:29S. Ponomarenko461011311113D. Kryshtal3812711442
WSep 12 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko4011711113D. Kryshtal36911791
WSep 9 · 14:30S. Ponomarenko47911115113D. Kryshtal3711711172
S. Ponomarenko10
WOct 8 · 10:04S. Ponomarenko1.251111810113R. Horokh3.7558111262WOct 8 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.0612111213113D. Kryshtal8.00143141182WOct 8 · 08:00V. Komar8.5091150S. Ponomarenko1.051113113WOct 8 · 07:00S. Kiilo10.50116561S. Ponomarenko1.0251111113LOct 8 · 05:30R. Horokh4.3311511113S. Ponomarenko1.20811871LOct 1 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3.001110119123S. Ponomarenko1.36612911102LOct 1 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko1.0213126682E. Rubtsov10.5011101111113LOct 1 · 01:25S. Ponomarenko1.0712671172O. Mishchenko7.501011114113WSep 30 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko1.0611126113V. Kovalenko8.007101191WSep 30 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko1.045111011113O. Kovalchuk9.0011212942
D. Kryshtal10
LOct 10 · 05:00V. Komar2.3891112113D. Kryshtal1.531151031WOct 9 · 17:11S. Kushnirenko2.00135111272D. Kryshtal1.731111814113WOct 9 · 15:30I. Shyndel2.0051750D. Kryshtal1.731119113LOct 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.57810111282S. Kushnirenko2.251112510113WOct 9 · 13:30S. Balabei1.5011116121D. Kryshtal2.5013711143WOct 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5311117113V. Komar2.38961191LOct 8 · 10:33D. Kryshtal1.618790V. Komar2.201111113LOct 8 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.0612111213113D. Kryshtal8.00143141182LOct 8 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5011118133D. Kryshtal2.505911111WOct 8 · 06:00S. Kiilo3.758101281D. Kryshtal1.25111210113
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