TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Igor Shyndel vs Serhii Kushnirenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181113115115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kushnirenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIgor Shyndel above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Serhii Kushnirenko at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Igor Shyndel 13–14 Serhii Kushnirenko Igor Shyndel has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Kushnirenko beat Shyndel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kushnirenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shyndel 1840 vs Kushnirenko 1906
Kushnirenko
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shyndel 20% vs Kushnirenko 60%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shyndel 40% vs Kushnirenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shyndel -4 · Kushnirenko -1
Shyndel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kushnirenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shyndel form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShyndel 1.833 / Kushnirenko 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kushnirenko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13271055
Shyndel1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kushnirenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShyndel4wins
AwayKushnirenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShyndel50%3 of 6
AwayKushnirenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shyndel6Kushnirenko4n = 10Shyndel took 6 of 10
S2Shyndel4Kushnirenko6n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S3Shyndel5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Shyndel3Kushnirenko5n = 8Kushnirenko took 5 of 8
S5Shyndel1Kushnirenko2n = 3Kushnirenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShyndelKushnirenkoS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.7−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShyndelKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 279 vs 321 / 77845.5%41.3%127 / 279 vs 321 / 778Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoShyndel 1.83/Kushnirenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shyndel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 13:00I. Shyndel33911581S. Kushnirenko4111811113
WSep 19 · 07:00I. Shyndel331111113S. Kushnirenko136340
WAug 23 · 07:00I. Shyndel4291111113S. Kushnirenko29117561
LAug 22 · 14:30I. Shyndel3421131172S. Kushnirenko47115119113
LAug 16 · 07:00I. Shyndel4011127101S. Kushnirenko4361411123
LAug 15 · 15:00I. Shyndel4011611752S. Kushnirenko44711411113
WAug 9 · 10:28I. Shyndel46111014113S. Kushnirenko357121241
LAug 9 · 08:30I. Shyndel2151060S. Kushnirenko341112113
WAug 1 · 13:00I. Shyndel46118115113S. Kushnirenko4471181172
LJul 25 · 16:30I. Shyndel30118561S. Kushnirenko3741111113
I. Shyndel10
WOct 10 · 06:30V. Komar2.50441241I. Shyndel1.50111110113LOct 9 · 16:30I. Shyndel1.8011511532S. Balabei1.91511711113LOct 9 · 15:30I. Shyndel2.0051750D. Kryshtal1.731119113LOct 9 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.53811114102V. Komar2.38118711123LOct 9 · 13:00I. Shyndel1.67911581S. Kushnirenko2.1011811113WSep 30 · 10:08S. Kiilo4.50711941I. Shyndel1.1711611113WSep 30 · 08:30V. Komar2.63119156102I. Shyndel1.443111311123LSep 30 · 07:30I. Shyndel2.0011108111R. Horokh1.7341211133LSep 30 · 06:30D. Kryshtal1.7311118113I. Shyndel2.00661171WSep 30 · 05:30I. Shyndel1.201113113S. Kiilo4.3351150
S. Kushnirenko10
LOct 9 · 17:11S. Kushnirenko2.00135111272D. Kryshtal1.731111814113WOct 9 · 16:00V. Komar1.80111111572S. Kushnirenko1.91513611113WOct 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal1.57810111282S. Kushnirenko2.251112510113WOct 9 · 13:00I. Shyndel1.67911581S. Kushnirenko2.1011811113LOct 9 · 12:00S. Balabei1.361111108113S. Kushnirenko3.0038121142WSep 23 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.739912121S. Kushnirenko2.00111110143LSep 23 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.2077111142R. Horokh1.61111137113LSep 23 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko3.008880S. Balabei1.361111113WSep 23 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko1.91118714113V. Komar1.80511111272LSep 23 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.2551171652D. Kryshtal1.571181114113
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