TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Stukalov vs Sergey Osipov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118811117114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched: 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 88 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 70.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 20–2 Sergey Osipov Sergey Osipov has won 2 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5170.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.3pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Stukalov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-2 in 22
Stukalov
Correct
gap of 18 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1147 vs Osipov 1176
Osipov
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Osipov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 50% vs Osipov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -1 · Osipov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Stukalov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.363 / Osipov 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Stukalov)-3.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270711
Stukalov1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 77 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Osipov3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov10wins
AwayOsipov0wins
Stukalov leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%8 of 8
AwayOsipovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov8Osipov2n = 10Stukalov took 8 of 10
S2Stukalov6Osipov4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov10Osipov0n = 10Stukalov took 10 of 10
S4Stukalov6Osipov0n = 6Stukalov took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovOsipovS − OBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.726.0+12.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 864 vs 132 / 27549.4%48%427 / 864 vs 132 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.36/Osipov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.1%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 11:10V. Stukalov4411911133S. Osipov354119111
WSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov4211911113S. Osipov28611561
WApr 3 · 05:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Osipov114160
WMar 31 · 11:10V. Stukalov4011711113S. Osipov31811751
WMar 27 · 10:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Osipov237790
WMar 20 · 06:30V. Stukalov4311911123S. Osipov377119101
WMar 16 · 10:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Osipov175480
WFeb 7 · 06:30V. Stukalov361312113S. Osipov24111030
WDec 8 · 08:00V. Stukalov4291111113S. Osipov27115381
WNov 26 · 08:35V. Stukalov4181111113S. Osipov27115561
V. Stukalov10
LOct 10 · 09:00V. Mukhin1.14611116113V. Stukalov5.0011841152WOct 10 · 08:00V. Stukalov2.00119118113V. Varchenko1.7351161172WOct 10 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy1.405990V. Stukalov2.751111113LOct 10 · 05:30V. Stukalov2.25811781V. Kondratenko1.5711611113LOct 8 · 11:05O. Miklukha2.63111111113V. Stukalov1.44136691WOct 8 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.2811119113M. Mykhailenko3.50681131LOct 8 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.361151112122D. Kunchurov3.00511414143LOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.22711912113O. Efimov4.00116111092WOct 7 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.7581111163S. Hovorunets1.401149141
S. Osipov10
LOct 10 · 10:00V. Varchenko1.8371112103S. Osipov1.831121091LOct 10 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.361111123S. Osipov3.0079100WOct 10 · 06:30V. Kondratenko1.57411511102S. Osipov2.25117117123LOct 10 · 04:30V. Mukhin1.5781111113S. Osipov2.25119871WOct 9 · 11:30S. Osipov1.281171112113D. Kunchurov3.5051161492LOct 9 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko2.201112113S. Osipov1.6171050WOct 9 · 07:30P. Ostrovskyi2.20107111152S. Osipov1.61121177113WOct 9 · 06:30S. Osipov1.171271113133O. Efimov4.501411711112WOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113WOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450
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