TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Oleh Napirko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 57.7%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 8–9 Oleh Napirko Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3257.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1594 vs Napirko 1568
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 80% vs Napirko 60%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 50% vs Napirko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Napirko +3
Napirko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.615 / Napirko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270686
Lazebnyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Napirko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 61 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLazebnyi4wins
AwayNapirko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayNapirko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi3Napirko7n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S2Lazebnyi3Napirko7n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S3Lazebnyi8Napirko2n = 10Lazebnyi took 8 of 10
S4Lazebnyi3Napirko5n = 8Napirko took 5 of 8
S5Lazebnyi1Napirko2n = 3Napirko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLazebnyiNapirkoL − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.9−3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 196 vs 422 / 85349%49.5%96 / 196 vs 422 / 853Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.61/Napirko 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 29 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi388111181O. Napirko4111136113
LSep 28 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi31941171O. Napirko3911116113
LSep 25 · 20:00R. Lazebnyi4011511672O. Napirko49711911113
LSep 20 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi311111721O. Napirko4413911113
LSep 18 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi205690O. Napirko331111113
LSep 16 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi4137111192O. Napirko49111197113
WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi46611117113O. Napirko4111281192
WSep 4 · 17:35R. Lazebnyi3611311113O. Napirko28611471
WAug 29 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi341111123O. Napirko2697100
R. Lazebnyi10
LOct 10 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.001111113R. Lazebnyi1.734860WOct 10 · 07:35O. Pavlyuk1.538911101R. Lazebnyi2.3811119123WOct 10 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi2.20111199113N. Kovalchuk1.6187111172WOct 10 · 05:35A. Shypilov2.635111021R. Lazebnyi1.4411612113WOct 9 · 18:35Y. Kravets1.802870R. Lazebnyi1.911111113LOct 9 · 17:35D. Shcherbak1.441111113R. Lazebnyi2.631860LOct 9 · 16:05O. Pavlyuk1.911118710113R. Lazebnyi1.80516111232LOct 9 · 14:05N. Kovalchuk1.61611115113R. Lazebnyi2.2011551182LOct 9 · 12:05I. Kozachuk1.5711127113R. Lazebnyi2.254101151WOct 8 · 03:15O. Hura1.83135111072R. Lazebnyi1.831111812113
O. Napirko10
WOct 10 · 10:05O. Napirko2.25311611113N. Kovalchuk1.5711711882WOct 10 · 08:05A. Shypilov2.00117111192O. Napirko1.73811913113WOct 10 · 06:05O. Pavlyuk1.679118101O. Napirko2.1011711123LOct 10 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.441111113O. Napirko2.637470LOct 6 · 11:25O. Napirko4.33811991D. Shcherbak1.2011811113LOct 6 · 09:25I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980WOct 6 · 07:25I. Romaniak1.531141091O. Napirko2.3861112113LOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko6.0081020D. Pesternikov1.111112113LOct 6 · 05:25A. Zeniuk1.2811611113O. Napirko3.50911861LOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652
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