TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Ruslan Lazebnyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111118116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 48 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 67.7%
48 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 6–4 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2867.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1792 vs Lazebnyi 1556
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 236 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Shcherbak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 70% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Shcherbak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +1 · Lazebnyi -3
Lazebnyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.444 / Lazebnyi 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Shcherbak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266213
Shcherbak1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 168 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it93% 98 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it78% 135 of 174
Lazebnyi2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 23 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak6wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak71.4%5 of 7
AwayLazebnyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak7Lazebnyi3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S2Shcherbak6Lazebnyi4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Shcherbak5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Shcherbak3Lazebnyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiS − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.334.1+3.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 728 vs 92 / 19052.2%48.4%380 / 728 vs 92 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.44/Lazebnyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak3711114113R. Lazebnyi34861191
WSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak49911117113R. Lazebnyi3811861122
LSep 7 · 17:25D. Shcherbak30671161R. Lazebnyi4011117113
WSep 5 · 08:05D. Shcherbak341211113R. Lazebnyi2110380
LSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak2812790R. Lazebnyi361411113
WAug 28 · 14:05D. Shcherbak371113133R. Lazebnyi28611110
WAug 22 · 06:35D. Shcherbak331111113R. Lazebnyi184950
LAug 21 · 14:05D. Shcherbak48119101172R. Lazebnyi48811126113
WAug 21 · 01:30D. Shcherbak43111110113R. Lazebnyi38981291
LAug 8 · 10:05D. Shcherbak34117881R. Lazebnyi4071111113
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 9 · 15:35Y. Kravets2.506970D. Shcherbak1.501111113LOct 9 · 13:35I. Kozachuk2.101111113D. Shcherbak1.679780WOct 9 · 12:35O. Pavlyuk2.25451611102D. Shcherbak1.571111147123WOct 9 · 03:00I. Kozachuk2.207750D. Shcherbak1.611111113LOct 9 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.5781290O. Pavlyuk2.251114113WOct 8 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.40135861D. Shcherbak2.75111111113LOct 8 · 21:30O. Hura3.40119611113D. Shcherbak1.3091111952WOct 8 · 20:30I. Romaniak2.503111061D. Shcherbak1.5011412113WOct 6 · 11:25O. Napirko4.33811991D. Shcherbak1.2011811113WOct 6 · 09:55D. Shcherbak3.0012911123D. Pesternikov1.3610114101
R. Lazebnyi10
WOct 9 · 18:35Y. Kravets1.802870R. Lazebnyi1.911111113LOct 9 · 16:05O. Pavlyuk1.911118710113R. Lazebnyi1.80516111232LOct 9 · 14:05N. Kovalchuk1.61611115113R. Lazebnyi2.2011551182LOct 9 · 12:05I. Kozachuk1.5711127113R. Lazebnyi2.254101151WOct 8 · 03:15O. Hura1.83135111072R. Lazebnyi1.831111812113LOct 8 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi2.201061381N. Kovalchuk1.61121111113WOct 7 · 23:45O. Mitla2.6311118762R. Lazebnyi1.44591111113LOct 7 · 21:45A. Shypilov3.00121172113R. Lazebnyi1.36107111162WOct 7 · 20:45M. Smyrnov2.256880R. Lazebnyi1.571111113LOct 7 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi2.2071161122N. Kovalchuk1.61119117113
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