Oleg Pavlyuk vs Ruslan Lazebnyi 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 9Finished

Oleg Pavlyuk

Home

1.91

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

11518167111012113

Ruslan Lazebnyi

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Oleg Pavlyuk to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingOleg Pavlyuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 18-16

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Set 5 · 11-3

Point 104 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Oleg Pavlyuk at 54.0%

104 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:47

54.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909

clears by 1.6pp

52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Lazebnyi

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Pavlyuk 1643 vs Lazebnyi 1564

Pavlyuk

Correct

both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pavlyuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%

Pavlyuk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pavlyuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Pavlyuk +1 · Lazebnyi -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pavlyuk) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Lazebnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPavlyuk 1.909 / Lazebnyi 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Pavlyuk)+1.6pp

Setka Cup · #13266359

Pavlyuk1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog31% won 5 of 16

Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10

Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7

Lazebnyi1.80

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite56% won 58 of 104

Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31

Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricPavlyukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 54 vs 92 / 18937%48.7%20 / 54 vs 92 / 189Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pavlyuk

Pavlyuk 1.91/Lazebnyi 1.80

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Pavlyuk · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Pavlyuk won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

O. Pavlyuk10