TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Vasylets vs Oleksandr Lyman 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611115511––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Vasylets to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Vasylets above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Andrii Vasylets at 63.6%
68 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Vasylets 34–35 Oleksandr Lyman Andrii Vasylets has won 34 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2163.6%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 13.3pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Vasylets
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-35 in 69
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasylets 1710 vs Lyman 1372
Vasylets
Wrong
both rated, 338 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasylets 100% vs Lyman 0%
Vasylets
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasylets 90% vs Lyman 20%
Vasylets
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasylets +5 · Lyman -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Vasylets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasylets 1.30 / Lyman 3.40
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Vasylets)-13.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270555
Vasylets1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite63% won 38 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Lyman3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 68 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasylets7wins
AwayLyman3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVasylets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasylets83.3%5 of 6
AwayLyman50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasylets6Lyman4n = 10Vasylets took 6 of 10
S2Vasylets5Lyman5n = 10split evenly
S3Vasylets6Lyman4n = 10Vasylets took 6 of 10
S4Vasylets6Lyman1n = 7Vasylets took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasyletsLymanV − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.033.6+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasyletsLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 522 vs 267 / 63646%42%240 / 522 vs 267 / 636Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VasyletsVasylets 1.30/Lyman 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Vasylets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 07:00A. Vasylets4211119113O. Lyman31961151
WSep 26 · 14:30A. Vasylets341111123O. Lyman2596100
WAug 26 · 11:00A. Vasylets4181111113O. Lyman35119871
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Vasylets331111113O. Lyman174850
WAug 19 · 08:00A. Vasylets45111211113O. Lyman31914261
WJun 20 · 12:30A. Vasylets43111011113O. Lyman32512781
LJun 6 · 16:00A. Vasylets4359111172O. Lyman45111157113
LMay 30 · 13:30A. Vasylets3811107101O. Lyman4381211123
LMay 23 · 12:30A. Vasylets154470O. Lyman331111113
WMay 16 · 15:00A. Vasylets46811511113O. Lyman4411611882
A. Vasylets10
WOct 10 · 14:00A. Vasylets1.401112113O. Syksa2.7511090WOct 10 · 13:00A. Vasylets1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.254880WOct 7 · 11:00A. Vasylets2.5011611113S. Chuhai1.50911561WOct 7 · 09:00D. Kuzmenko2.758860A. Vasylets1.401111113WOct 7 · 08:00A. Vasylets1.50129711113O. Syksa2.50101111972LOct 7 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.5361112113A. Vasylets2.381181081WOct 7 · 05:30A. Vasylets1.281111113O. Kurylenko3.505660WOct 4 · 17:33M. Hubenko1.53611961A. Vasylets2.3811811113WOct 4 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.50312641A. Vasylets2.5011101153WOct 4 · 15:00A. Vasylets1.501111103O. Syksa2.507790
O. Lyman10
LOct 10 · 14:30O. Lyman2.631371271D. Kuzmenko1.44151110113LOct 10 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.141111113O. Lyman5.007270LOct 10 · 12:30O. Lyman4.3311851142O. Syksa1.20711116113LOct 9 · 11:00O. Syksa1.2271111113O. Lyman4.00116681LOct 9 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.33111115113O. Lyman3.25981761LOct 9 · 08:30O. Kurylenko1.671111113O. Lyman2.104790WOct 9 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.251146101O. Lyman1.3391111123LOct 9 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.571171110113O. Lyman2.2541191272WOct 8 · 11:00O. Lyman4.5011118113O. Syksa1.17471181LOct 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.57111139113O. Lyman2.25114111152
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.