TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmitro Kuzmenko vs Andrii Vasylets 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811611––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Vasylets to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitro Kuzmenko above · Andrii Vasylets below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Andrii Vasylets at 69.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dmitro Kuzmenko 10–17 Andrii Vasylets Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5869.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vasylets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Vasylets
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1417 vs Vasylets 1702
Vasylets
Correct
both rated, 285 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Vasylets 80%
Vasylets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Vasylets 80%
Vasylets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko +1 · Vasylets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Vasylets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 2.75 / Vasylets 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Vasylets)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255550
Kuzmenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 110 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back17% 29 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 103
Vasylets1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 35 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko4wins
AwayVasylets6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVasylets leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVasylets75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko2Vasylets8n = 10Vasylets took 8 of 10
S2Kuzmenko5Vasylets5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzmenko5Vasylets5n = 10split evenly
S4Kuzmenko4Vasylets4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoVasyletsK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.737.8−2.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoVasyletsBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 959 vs 236 / 51842%45.6%403 / 959 vs 236 / 518Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VasyletsKuzmenko 2.75/Vasylets 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Vasylets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vasylets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 12:00D. Kuzmenko30511951A. Vasylets4111811113
LSep 16 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko205870A. Vasylets331111113
LSep 9 · 07:30D. Kuzmenko27641161A. Vasylets3911116113
WSep 5 · 12:00D. Kuzmenko4381112123A. Vasylets3711610101
WSep 2 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko539111011123A. Vasylets44114127102
WAug 22 · 14:30D. Kuzmenko4211911113A. Vasylets37811991
LAug 16 · 14:00D. Kuzmenko2410950A. Vasylets341211113
WJul 25 · 16:00D. Kuzmenko3911611113A. Vasylets26511461
LJul 18 · 14:00D. Kuzmenko50911111092A. Vasylets50117912113
LJul 11 · 17:28D. Kuzmenko29711831A. Vasylets3711411113
D. Kuzmenko10
WOct 7 · 07:30D. Kuzmenko2.10611129123O. Kurylenko1.671141011102LOct 7 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko2.0061171152O. Syksa1.73115118113LOct 7 · 04:30D. Kuzmenko7.00211117112S. Chuhai1.08112911133LOct 6 · 11:00S. Maliuk1.80111135113D. Kuzmenko1.9168111132LOct 6 · 10:00O. Kurylenko1.7311118113D. Kuzmenko2.00371191WOct 6 · 08:30O. Lyman2.506270D. Kuzmenko1.501111113LOct 6 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko2.50111178133D. Kuzmenko1.50681111112LOct 6 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.101211113D. Kuzmenko1.6710870LOct 4 · 16:00O. Syksa1.671211113D. Kuzmenko2.1010570LOct 4 · 14:30M. Hubenko1.36111152D. Kuzmenko3.007781
A. Vasylets10
WOct 7 · 08:00A. Vasylets1.50129711113O. Syksa2.50101111972LOct 7 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.5361112113A. Vasylets2.381181081WOct 7 · 05:30A. Vasylets1.281111113O. Kurylenko3.505660WOct 4 · 17:33M. Hubenko1.53611961A. Vasylets2.3811811113WOct 4 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.50312641A. Vasylets2.5011101153WOct 4 · 15:00A. Vasylets1.501111103O. Syksa2.507790LOct 4 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.5011126111M. Hubenko1.5031411133WOct 4 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.4411811113D. Kuzmenko2.63511951WSep 30 · 11:30A. Vasylets1.7371112113O. Syksa2.001151051WSep 30 · 07:30M. Hubenko1.501181013112A. Vasylets2.508111211133
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