TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmitro Kuzmenko vs Oleh Kurylenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111412109111210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:51 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleh Kurylenko @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingDmitro Kuzmenko above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 54.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Dmitro Kuzmenko 70–100 Oleh Kurylenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 70 of their 170 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:5154.7%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.3pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
70-100 in 170
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 30 in 170, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1401 vs Kurylenko 1551
Kurylenko
Wrong
both rated, 149 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 10% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko -4 · Kurylenko -2
Kuzmenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 2.10 / Kurylenko 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kurylenko)-5.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256047
Kuzmenko2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 110 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back17% 29 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 103
Kurylenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 158 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it89% 73 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it80% 111 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko5wins
AwayKurylenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko100%5 of 5
AwayKurylenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kuzmenko5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzmenko6Kurylenko4n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S4Kuzmenko4Kurylenko2n = 6Kuzmenko took 4 of 6
S5Kuzmenko1Kurylenko2n = 3Kurylenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoKurylenkoKuzmenko − KurylenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.5−0.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 959 vs 501 / 101041.9%49.6%402 / 959 vs 501 / 1010Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKuzmenko 2.10/Kurylenko 1.67
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleh Kurylenko @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko30371191O. Kurylenko4111118113
WSep 28 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko351111133O. Kurylenko2889110
LSep 25 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko4247111282O. Kurylenko491111610113
LSep 24 · 07:00D. Kuzmenko4151171262O. Kurylenko521191110113
WSep 22 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko48116812113O. Kurylenko47911111062
LSep 21 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko238780O. Kurylenko331111113
WSep 18 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko341111123O. Kurylenko2578100
WSep 16 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko4211911113O. Kurylenko26511551
LSep 14 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko30711571O. Kurylenko3911611113
WSep 11 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko351311113O. Kurylenko2511770
D. Kuzmenko10
LOct 7 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.0089111152M. Hubenko1.36111166113LOct 7 · 09:00D. Kuzmenko2.758860A. Vasylets1.401111113LOct 7 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko2.0061171152O. Syksa1.73115118113LOct 7 · 04:30D. Kuzmenko7.00211117112S. Chuhai1.08112911133LOct 6 · 11:00S. Maliuk1.80111135113D. Kuzmenko1.9168111132LOct 6 · 10:00O. Kurylenko1.7311118113D. Kuzmenko2.00371191WOct 6 · 08:30O. Lyman2.506270D. Kuzmenko1.501111113LOct 6 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko2.50111178133D. Kuzmenko1.50681111112LOct 6 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.101211113D. Kuzmenko1.6710870LOct 4 · 16:00O. Syksa1.671211113D. Kuzmenko2.1010570
O. Kurylenko10
WOct 7 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.36891111162O. Kurylenko3.00111189183LOct 7 · 06:30O. Kurylenko4.334970S. Chuhai1.201111113LOct 7 · 05:30A. Vasylets1.281111113O. Kurylenko3.505660WOct 6 · 11:30S. Miroshnychenko3.25811451O. Kurylenko1.3311711113WOct 6 · 10:00O. Kurylenko1.7311118113D. Kuzmenko2.00371191WOct 6 · 08:00S. Maliuk1.831281071O. Kurylenko1.83101112113LOct 6 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.25421211113O. Kurylenko1.57111110792WOct 6 · 05:00O. Lyman2.251114891O. Kurylenko1.5791611113WOct 5 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.9110330O. Kurylenko1.801211113WOct 5 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.3361111392O. Kurylenko3.25119911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Kuzmenko
Nothing scheduled
O. Kurylenko
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