TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Oleh Kurylenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191416811911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:55 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 89 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 62.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 40–56 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 40 of their 96 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Lyman beat Kurylenko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5562.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-56 in 96
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1444 vs Kurylenko 1544
Kurylenko
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 40% vs Kurylenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 50% vs Kurylenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman +1 · Kurylenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kurylenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurylenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.25 / Kurylenko 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kurylenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250568
Lyman2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Kurylenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 156 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it90% 73 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it81% 110 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman5wins
AwayKurylenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman100%5 of 5
AwayKurylenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lyman6Kurylenko4n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S3Lyman3Kurylenko7n = 10Kurylenko took 7 of 10
S4Lyman3Kurylenko4n = 7Kurylenko took 4 of 7
S5Lyman2Kurylenko1n = 3Lyman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKurylenkoL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.0−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 628 vs 498 / 100543.3%49.6%272 / 628 vs 498 / 1005Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoLyman 2.25/Kurylenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:30O. Lyman3911116113O. Kurylenko30661171
WSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman41117111113O. Kurylenko4291111382
WSep 28 · 05:30O. Lyman331111113O. Kurylenko154650
LSep 26 · 13:00O. Lyman409117131O. Kurylenko4611911153
LSep 25 · 11:30O. Lyman28611381O. Kurylenko3811511113
WSep 24 · 11:00O. Lyman521110119113O. Kurylenko4481271162
LSep 22 · 07:30O. Lyman154560O. Kurylenko331111113
LSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman49121111782O. Kurylenko52147911113
LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2768130O. Kurylenko371111153
WSep 17 · 05:30O. Lyman4111118113O. Kurylenko33781171
O. Lyman10
WOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman3.25111175113M. Hubenko1.3357111172LOct 5 · 09:30O. Syksa1.2011111113O. Lyman4.33511731LOct 5 · 07:30S. Maliuk1.5781111113O. Lyman2.25119941WOct 5 · 06:30O. Lyman2.1011116113O. Kurylenko1.67661171LOct 5 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.5031211113O. Lyman2.501110791WOct 2 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.6139110O. Lyman2.201111133WOct 2 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.44111241072O. Lyman2.638101112113LOct 2 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.4013611113O. Lyman2.751111981WOct 2 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.25811791O. Lyman1.3311911113LOct 2 · 04:30O. Syksa1.2061111143O. Lyman4.331146121
O. Kurylenko10
WOct 5 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.9110330O. Kurylenko1.801211113WOct 5 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.3361111392O. Kurylenko3.25119911113LOct 5 · 08:30O. Syksa1.6711811113O. Kurylenko2.10811761LOct 5 · 06:30O. Lyman2.1011116113O. Kurylenko1.67661171LOct 5 · 04:30S. Maliuk1.831418113O. Kurylenko1.83121660WSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122LSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman2.20117111113O. Kurylenko1.6191111382WSep 30 · 09:00M. Hubenko1.36119691O. Kurylenko3.0091111113WSep 30 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.911111113O. Syksa1.802260WSep 30 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.281111113A. Vasylets3.507680
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