TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Oleh Kurylenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711111113118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleh Kurylenko @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 83 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 59.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 38–56 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 38 of their 94 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:2359.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-56 in 94
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 18 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1402 vs Kurylenko 1562
Kurylenko
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 20% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 40% vs Kurylenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -4 · Kurylenko +2
Lyman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kurylenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.20 / Kurylenko 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kurylenko)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219729
Lyman2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 69 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Kurylenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it90% 73 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it81% 112 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman4wins
AwayKurylenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurylenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman100%4 of 4
AwayKurylenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman4Kurylenko6n = 10Kurylenko took 6 of 10
S2Lyman7Kurylenko3n = 10Lyman took 7 of 10
S3Lyman4Kurylenko6n = 10Kurylenko took 6 of 10
S4Lyman2Kurylenko5n = 7Kurylenko took 5 of 7
S5Lyman1Kurylenko2n = 3Kurylenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKurylenkoL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.1+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 625 vs 501 / 100843.2%49.7%270 / 625 vs 501 / 1008Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoLyman 2.20/Kurylenko 1.61
Miss
What we said
59%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleh Kurylenko @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 05:30O. Lyman331111113O. Kurylenko154650
LSep 26 · 13:00O. Lyman409117131O. Kurylenko4611911153
LSep 25 · 11:30O. Lyman28611381O. Kurylenko3811511113
WSep 24 · 11:00O. Lyman521110119113O. Kurylenko4481271162
LSep 22 · 07:30O. Lyman154560O. Kurylenko331111113
LSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman49121111782O. Kurylenko52147911113
LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2768130O. Kurylenko371111153
WSep 17 · 05:30O. Lyman4111118113O. Kurylenko33781171
LSep 11 · 11:30O. Lyman50811111192O. Kurylenko48114913113
WSep 10 · 05:30O. Lyman3911116113O. Kurylenko25611171
O. Lyman10
LSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113LSep 30 · 07:00O. Lyman2.63961151A. Vasylets1.4411119113LSep 30 · 05:00O. Lyman4.33117991O. Syksa1.2081111113LSep 29 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.33591911113O. Lyman3.25111117462WSep 29 · 10:00O. Lyman2.6311111114113D. Kuzmenko1.44134131232WSep 29 · 08:00S. Miroshnychenko3.259980O. Lyman1.331111113LSep 29 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571111123O. Lyman2.2546100WSep 29 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.5354100O. Lyman2.381111123LSep 28 · 11:30O. Lyman2.501299101S. Maliuk1.50101111123WSep 28 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.3341181592O. Lyman3.251141113113
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122WSep 30 · 09:00M. Hubenko1.36119691O. Kurylenko3.0091111113WSep 30 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.281111113A. Vasylets3.507680LSep 28 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8089110D. Kuzmenko1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:00O. Syksa1.803111011113O. Kurylenko1.9111812592WSep 28 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.911211123S. Maliuk1.80109100LSep 28 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.67101113113O. Kurylenko2.101261191LSep 28 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.674650O. Lyman2.101111113WSep 26 · 17:34A. Vasylets1.8069111182O. Kurylenko1.91111196113WSep 26 · 16:30O. Kurylenko2.0011113113D. Prylepa1.73691161
Upcoming Matches
O. Lyman
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O. Kurylenko
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