TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Kurylenko vs Andrii Vasylets 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:22 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Andrii Vasylets below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 70.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 5–31 Andrii Vasylets Oleh Kurylenko has won 5 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2270.3%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 7.5pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-31 in 36
Vasylets
Wrong
gap of 26 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1515 vs Vasylets 1662
Vasylets
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 20% vs Vasylets 80%
Vasylets
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 50% vs Vasylets 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko -2 · Vasylets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Kurylenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasylets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.285 / Vasylets 3.50
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kurylenko)-7.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218454
Kurylenko1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it90% 73 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it81% 112 of 138
Vasylets3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 55 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko1wins
AwayVasylets9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVasylets leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayVasylets100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko3Vasylets7n = 10Vasylets took 7 of 10
S2Kurylenko3Vasylets7n = 10Vasylets took 7 of 10
S3Kurylenko4Vasylets6n = 10Vasylets took 6 of 10
S4Kurylenko0Vasylets7n = 7Vasylets took 7 of 7
S5Kurylenko1Vasylets2n = 3Vasylets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoVasyletsK − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.442.1−10.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoVasyletsBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 1005 vs 233 / 51849.6%45%498 / 1005 vs 233 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKurylenko 1.28/Vasylets 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 17:34O. Kurylenko48111196113A. Vasylets4569111182
LSep 26 · 15:30O. Kurylenko24471121A. Vasylets3611113113
LSep 16 · 05:30O. Kurylenko6411131612122A. Vasylets669111814143
LSep 2 · 05:30O. Kurylenko30951151A. Vasylets4011117113
LAug 19 · 05:30O. Kurylenko3611513342A. Vasylets517111111113
LMay 30 · 14:30O. Kurylenko165740A. Vasylets331111113
LMar 28 · 15:30O. Kurylenko29761151A. Vasylets4211119113
LJan 20 · 18:12O. Kurylenko21110100A. Vasylets351112123
LJan 20 · 17:00O. Kurylenko207850A. Vasylets331111113
LDec 4 · 13:00O. Kurylenko26611631A. Vasylets4011711113
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122LSep 28 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8089110D. Kuzmenko1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:00O. Syksa1.803111011113O. Kurylenko1.9111812592WSep 28 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.911211123S. Maliuk1.80109100LSep 28 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.67101113113O. Kurylenko2.101261191LSep 28 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.674650O. Lyman2.101111113WSep 26 · 17:34A. Vasylets1.8069111182O. Kurylenko1.91111196113WSep 26 · 16:30O. Kurylenko2.0011113113D. Prylepa1.73691161LSep 26 · 15:30O. Kurylenko3.50471121A. Vasylets1.2811113113WSep 26 · 14:00O. Kurylenko3.0095111193M. Hubenko1.3611117782
A. Vasylets10
LSep 26 · 17:34A. Vasylets1.8069111182O. Kurylenko1.91111196113WSep 26 · 15:30O. Kurylenko3.50471121A. Vasylets1.2811113113WSep 26 · 14:30A. Vasylets1.671111123O. Lyman2.1096100WSep 26 · 13:30D. Prylepa1.83111371A. Vasylets1.8311911113WSep 26 · 12:30A. Vasylets2.5011112113M. Hubenko1.50681151LSep 22 · 17:00A. Vasylets2.385470M. Hubenko1.531111113WSep 22 · 16:00A. Vasylets2.381111113A. Lushchyk1.537750LSep 22 · 15:30A. Vasylets2.638121191S. Chuhai1.4411148113WSep 22 · 14:30S. Chuhai1.446711121A. Vasylets2.6311116143LSep 22 · 13:30A. Lushchyk1.501151110113A. Vasylets2.5081141292
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