TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Oleh Kurylenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116116611117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:15 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 59.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 40–56 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 40 of their 96 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1559.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-56 in 96
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 16 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1436 vs Kurylenko 1527
Kurylenko
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 60% vs Kurylenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 40% vs Kurylenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -1 · Kurylenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kurylenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.10 / Kurylenko 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kurylenko)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245102
Lyman2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 70 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Kurylenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 159 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it90% 73 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it81% 112 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman5wins
AwayKurylenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman100%5 of 5
AwayKurylenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lyman6Kurylenko4n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S3Lyman3Kurylenko7n = 10Kurylenko took 7 of 10
S4Lyman3Kurylenko4n = 7Kurylenko took 4 of 7
S5Lyman2Kurylenko1n = 3Lyman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKurylenkoL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.0−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 626 vs 496 / 100243.3%49.5%271 / 626 vs 496 / 1002Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoLyman 2.10/Kurylenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:30O. Lyman3911116113O. Kurylenko30661171
WSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman41117111113O. Kurylenko4291111382
WSep 28 · 05:30O. Lyman331111113O. Kurylenko154650
LSep 26 · 13:00O. Lyman409117131O. Kurylenko4611911153
LSep 25 · 11:30O. Lyman28611381O. Kurylenko3811511113
WSep 24 · 11:00O. Lyman521110119113O. Kurylenko4481271162
LSep 22 · 07:30O. Lyman154560O. Kurylenko331111113
LSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman49121111782O. Kurylenko52147911113
LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2768130O. Kurylenko371111153
WSep 17 · 05:30O. Lyman4111118113O. Kurylenko33781171
O. Lyman10
LOct 5 · 07:30S. Maliuk1.5781111113O. Lyman2.25119941LOct 5 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.5031211113O. Lyman2.501110791WOct 2 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.6139110O. Lyman2.201111133WOct 2 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.44111241072O. Lyman2.638101112113LOct 2 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.4013611113O. Lyman2.751111981WOct 2 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.25811791O. Lyman1.3311911113LOct 2 · 04:30O. Syksa1.2061111143O. Lyman4.331146121LSep 30 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.3361111113O. Lyman3.25114691WSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman2.20117111113O. Kurylenko1.6191111382LSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113
O. Kurylenko10
LOct 5 · 04:30S. Maliuk1.831418113O. Kurylenko1.83121660WSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122LSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman2.20117111113O. Kurylenko1.6191111382WSep 30 · 09:00M. Hubenko1.36119691O. Kurylenko3.0091111113WSep 30 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.911111113O. Syksa1.802260WSep 30 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.281111113A. Vasylets3.507680LSep 28 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8089110D. Kuzmenko1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:00O. Syksa1.803111011113O. Kurylenko1.9111812592WSep 28 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.911211123S. Maliuk1.80109100LSep 28 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.67101113113O. Kurylenko2.101261191
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