TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ziakun vs Oleksandr Lyman 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111113––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ziakun to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Ziakun @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 58 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Oleksandr Ziakun at 61.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 60–29 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 29 of their 89 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:0061.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 0.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ziakun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-29 in 89
Ziakun
Wrong
gap of 31 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1537 vs Lyman 1420
Ziakun
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 80% vs Lyman 40%
Ziakun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 60% vs Lyman 30%
Ziakun
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +2 · Lyman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Ziakun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ziakun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 1.615 / Lyman 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Ziakun)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13229048
Ziakun1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 79 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Lyman2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 68 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun7wins
AwayLyman3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZiakun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun75%6 of 8
AwayLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun8Lyman2n = 10Ziakun took 8 of 10
S2Ziakun7Lyman3n = 10Ziakun took 7 of 10
S3Ziakun6Lyman4n = 10Ziakun took 6 of 10
S4Ziakun3Lyman3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunLymanZ − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.236.1+4.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 761 vs 270 / 62647.3%43.1%360 / 761 vs 270 / 626Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZiakunZiakun 1.61/Lyman 2.20
Miss
What we said
61.7%
Ziakun · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Ziakun @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 06:00O. Ziakun341111123O. Lyman2046100
LSep 22 · 10:30O. Ziakun561251116122O. Lyman601011718143
WSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun4111127113O. Lyman379101171
WSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun561851012113O. Lyman581611121092
WSep 15 · 07:30O. Ziakun361112133O. Lyman30910110
WSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun371511113O. Lyman2913970
LSep 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun361181071O. Lyman4061112113
WSep 3 · 09:00O. Ziakun331111113O. Lyman207760
LAug 26 · 04:30O. Ziakun3410113101O. Lyman4212711123
WAug 25 · 04:30O. Ziakun3961111113O. Lyman25114461
O. Ziakun10
WOct 2 · 09:00O. Syksa1.57117991O. Ziakun2.2551111113WOct 2 · 08:00O. Ziakun2.00511411113D. Kuzmenko1.7311911782LOct 2 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.7311116113O. Ziakun2.00771191WOct 2 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.4411911113S. Miroshnychenko2.63711891WOct 1 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.0011149113D. Prylepa1.736121171LOct 1 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.6311910101O. Syksa1.4431112123LOct 1 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.003890D. Kuzmenko1.731111113LOct 1 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.006890M. Hubenko1.361111113WOct 1 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.441317913113S. Miroshnychenko2.631515111152WSep 29 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.8312611113S. Maliuk1.831011871
O. Lyman10
WOct 2 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.44111241072O. Lyman2.638101112113LOct 2 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.4013611113O. Lyman2.751111981WOct 2 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.25811791O. Lyman1.3311911113LOct 2 · 04:30O. Syksa1.2061111143O. Lyman4.331146121LSep 30 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.3361111113O. Lyman3.25114691WSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman2.20117111113O. Kurylenko1.6191111382LSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113LSep 30 · 07:00O. Lyman2.63961151A. Vasylets1.4411119113LSep 30 · 05:00O. Lyman4.33117991O. Syksa1.2081111113LSep 29 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.33591911113O. Lyman3.25111117462
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