TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Oleksandr Syksa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117811118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched: 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Syksa to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Oleksandr Syksa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Syksa at 85.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 3–34 Oleksandr Syksa Oleksandr Lyman has won 3 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5985.6%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 0.2pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Syksa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-34 in 37
Syksa
Wrong
gap of 31 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1399 vs Syksa 1545
Syksa
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 20% vs Syksa 80%
Syksa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 30% vs Syksa 60%
Syksa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -2 · Syksa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Syksa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 4.50 / Syksa 1.166
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Syksa)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13261795
Lyman4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 69 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Syksa1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 245 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it95% 100 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it83% 165 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman0wins
AwaySyksa10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSyksa leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman0%0 of 4
AwaySyksa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman4Syksa6n = 10Syksa took 6 of 10
S2Lyman4Syksa6n = 10Syksa took 6 of 10
S3Lyman0Syksa10n = 10Syksa took 10 of 10
S4Lyman2Syksa6n = 8Syksa took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanSyksaL − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.641.8−9.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanSyksaBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 627 vs 594 / 112742.3%52.7%265 / 627 vs 594 / 1127Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SyksaLyman 4.50/Syksa 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
85.6%
Syksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 09:30O. Lyman26511731O. Syksa3411111113
LOct 2 · 04:30O. Lyman331146121O. Syksa4261111143
LSep 30 · 05:00O. Lyman36117991O. Syksa4181111113
LSep 28 · 07:30O. Lyman49611514132O. Syksa541151112153
LSep 24 · 06:30O. Lyman207940O. Syksa331111113
LSep 21 · 09:00O. Lyman304131031O. Syksa45111112113
LSep 18 · 05:00O. Lyman30811561O. Syksa4211911113
LSep 17 · 09:30O. Lyman4311461392O. Syksa539111111113
LSep 11 · 10:00O. Lyman361196101O. Syksa4171111123
LSep 10 · 09:30O. Lyman239680O. Syksa331111113
O. Lyman10
LOct 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.57111139113O. Lyman2.25114111152LOct 8 · 08:00O. Lyman3.4091161172M. Hubenko1.30114119113WOct 8 · 07:00S. Miroshnychenko3.4071181192O. Lyman1.30119119113LOct 8 · 05:30O. Lyman2.50121280D. Kuzmenko1.501414113LOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.5311512113O. Lyman2.386111091WOct 6 · 09:30O. Lyman1.331111113S. Miroshnychenko3.256590LOct 6 · 08:30O. Lyman2.506270D. Kuzmenko1.501111113LOct 6 · 07:00O. Lyman2.63131110101S. Maliuk1.4415812123LOct 6 · 05:00O. Lyman2.251114891O. Kurylenko1.5791611113WOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman3.25111175113M. Hubenko1.3357111172
O. Syksa10
WOct 8 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.5011118972O. Syksa2.50961111113WOct 8 · 08:30S. Miroshnychenko3.4011117592O. Syksa1.30971111113LOct 8 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko2.1081111113O. Syksa1.67117591WOct 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.38101116652O. Syksa1.531261411113WOct 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.91611581O. Syksa1.8011611113LOct 7 · 10:00O. Syksa4.50108110S. Chuhai1.171211133LOct 7 · 08:00A. Vasylets1.50129711113O. Syksa2.50101111972WOct 7 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko2.0061171152O. Syksa1.73115118113WOct 7 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.53115111162O. Syksa2.38311713113LOct 5 · 10:30S. Maliuk2.2011611113O. Syksa1.61711661
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