TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Maksym Hubenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911114611119711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Maksym Hubenko at 78.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 5–22 Maksym Hubenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 5 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5978.6%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
clears by 1.7pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-22 in 27
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 17 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1411 vs Hubenko 1661
Hubenko
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 40% vs Hubenko 60%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 30% vs Hubenko 50%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman +1 · Hubenko +3
Hubenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Hubenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 3.40 / Hubenko 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Hubenko)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13261359
Lyman3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 69 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Hubenko1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 258 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it93% 132 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 182 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman2wins
AwayHubenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman25%1 of 4
AwayHubenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S2Lyman5Hubenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Lyman4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S4Lyman0Hubenko9n = 9Hubenko took 9 of 9
S5Lyman2Hubenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanHubenkoL − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.742.6−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 627 vs 578 / 105642.6%54.7%267 / 627 vs 578 / 1056Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoLyman 3.40/Hubenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman45111175113M. Hubenko4157111172
LSep 30 · 10:30O. Lyman30114691M. Hubenko3961111113
LSep 29 · 11:30O. Lyman49111117462M. Hubenko55591911113
LSep 26 · 16:00O. Lyman388911101M. Hubenko4011116123
LSep 24 · 04:30O. Lyman29511941M. Hubenko3811511113
WSep 17 · 11:30O. Lyman55911119153M. Hubenko48114911132
LSep 6 · 08:30O. Lyman31411791M. Hubenko3611311113
LSep 4 · 05:00O. Lyman50111012892M. Hubenko506121011113
LAug 26 · 10:00O. Lyman36681571M. Hubenko46111113113
LAug 25 · 10:30O. Lyman246990M. Hubenko331111113
O. Lyman10
LOct 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.57111139113O. Lyman2.25114111152WOct 8 · 07:00S. Miroshnychenko3.4071181192O. Lyman1.30119119113LOct 8 · 05:30O. Lyman2.50121280D. Kuzmenko1.501414113LOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.5311512113O. Lyman2.386111091WOct 6 · 09:30O. Lyman1.331111113S. Miroshnychenko3.256590LOct 6 · 08:30O. Lyman2.506270D. Kuzmenko1.501111113LOct 6 · 07:00O. Lyman2.63131110101S. Maliuk1.4415812123LOct 6 · 05:00O. Lyman2.251114891O. Kurylenko1.5791611113WOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman3.25111175113M. Hubenko1.3357111172LOct 5 · 09:30O. Syksa1.2011111113O. Lyman4.33511731
M. Hubenko10
WOct 8 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.4067130M. Hubenko1.301111153WOct 8 · 05:00S. Miroshnychenko4.50116641M. Hubenko1.1761111113WOct 7 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.0089111152M. Hubenko1.36111166113LOct 7 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.36891111162O. Kurylenko3.00111189183LOct 7 · 08:30M. Hubenko2.7511612792S. Chuhai1.409111011113WOct 7 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.5361112113A. Vasylets2.381181081LOct 7 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.53115111162O. Syksa2.38311713113LOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman3.25111175113M. Hubenko1.3357111172LOct 5 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.3361111392O. Kurylenko3.25119911113WOct 5 · 08:00O. Ziakun3.004117101M. Hubenko1.3611811123
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