TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ziakun vs Oleksandr Lyman 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1111141311911115
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ziakun to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Oleksandr Ziakun at 62.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 62–30 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 30 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5762.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ziakun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
62-30 in 92
Ziakun
Correct
gap of 32 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1541 vs Lyman 1406
Ziakun
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 60% vs Lyman 40%
Ziakun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 60% vs Lyman 30%
Ziakun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +1 · Lyman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Ziakun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 1.571 / Lyman 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Ziakun)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13261482
Ziakun1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 82 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Lyman2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 69 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun7wins
AwayLyman3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZiakun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun75%6 of 8
AwayLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun8Lyman2n = 10Ziakun took 8 of 10
S2Ziakun5Lyman5n = 10split evenly
S3Ziakun6Lyman4n = 10Ziakun took 6 of 10
S4Ziakun4Lyman2n = 6Ziakun took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunLymanZ − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.538.2+1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 765 vs 267 / 62847.3%42.5%362 / 765 vs 267 / 628Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZiakunZiakun 1.57/Lyman 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Ziakun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ziakun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun3911512113O. Lyman366111091
WOct 5 · 05:30O. Ziakun3731211113O. Lyman371110791
LOct 2 · 11:00O. Ziakun2339110O. Lyman351111133
WSep 29 · 06:00O. Ziakun341111123O. Lyman2046100
LSep 22 · 10:30O. Ziakun561251116122O. Lyman601011718143
WSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun4111127113O. Lyman379101171
WSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun561851012113O. Lyman581611121092
WSep 15 · 07:30O. Ziakun361112133O. Lyman30910110
WSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun371511113O. Lyman2913970
LSep 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun361181071O. Lyman4061112113
O. Ziakun10
WOct 8 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.101111113D. Kuzmenko1.679980LOct 8 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.4067130M. Hubenko1.301111153LOct 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.38101116652O. Syksa1.531261411113WOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.5311512113O. Lyman2.386111091WOct 6 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.73111199113S. Maliuk2.0089111182WOct 6 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.50158128113S. Miroshnychenko2.501311101182WOct 6 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.25421211113O. Kurylenko1.57111110792WOct 6 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.101211113D. Kuzmenko1.6710870LOct 5 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.9110330O. Kurylenko1.801211113LOct 5 · 09:00S. Maliuk1.831411113O. Ziakun1.8312560
O. Lyman10
LOct 8 · 08:00O. Lyman3.4091161172M. Hubenko1.30114119113WOct 8 · 07:00S. Miroshnychenko3.4071181192O. Lyman1.30119119113LOct 8 · 05:30O. Lyman2.50121280D. Kuzmenko1.501414113LOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.5311512113O. Lyman2.386111091WOct 6 · 09:30O. Lyman1.331111113S. Miroshnychenko3.256590LOct 6 · 08:30O. Lyman2.506270D. Kuzmenko1.501111113LOct 6 · 07:00O. Lyman2.63131110101S. Maliuk1.4415812123LOct 6 · 05:00O. Lyman2.251114891O. Kurylenko1.5791611113WOct 5 · 11:30O. Lyman3.25111175113M. Hubenko1.3357111172LOct 5 · 09:30O. Syksa1.2011111113O. Lyman4.33511731
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