TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Chmielowski vs Maciej Kolek 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 13–11 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1854.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Chmielowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1687 vs Kolek 1668
Chmielowski
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 80% vs Kolek 50%
Chmielowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.80 / Kolek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13270093
Chmielowski1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 122 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it74% 94 of 127
Kolek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 176 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back22% 56 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski6wins
AwayKolek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChmielowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayKolek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski7Kolek3n = 10Chmielowski took 7 of 10
S2Chmielowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Chmielowski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmielowski6Kolek4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S5Chmielowski2Kolek1n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiKolekC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.241.6+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 679 vs 778 / 153248.3%50.8%328 / 679 vs 778 / 1532Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.80/Kolek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 22:55J. Chmielowski37991181M. Kolek3911116113
WSep 21 · 18:30J. Chmielowski43111011113M. Kolek36812791
LSep 11 · 00:10J. Chmielowski371168121M. Kolek4481111143
WSep 3 · 22:35J. Chmielowski516111211113M. Kolek5111814992
WAug 23 · 23:45J. Chmielowski4281111123M. Kolek361187101
LAug 23 · 16:05J. Chmielowski401189121M. Kolek4041111143
LAug 22 · 23:45J. Chmielowski50111112792M. Kolek549131011113
WAug 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski4011117113M. Kolek32981141
WJul 8 · 13:25J. Chmielowski47116613113M. Kolek49711111192
WJun 26 · 12:10J. Chmielowski4514911113M. Kolek351211391
J. Chmielowski10
WOct 10 · 18:30J. Chmielowski2.001111119113F. Mlynarski1.7313791152LOct 10 · 17:20J. Chmielowski3.407550K. Kolodziej1.301111113LOct 10 · 16:05S. Sporek1.831411123J. Chmielowski1.83127100WOct 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski1.731111113D. Jadam2.005880WSep 23 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.83126611122J. Chmielowski1.831011119143WSep 22 · 22:55K. Rudomina2.63711131172J. Chmielowski1.44118157113WSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113WSep 22 · 21:25J. Mitas1.831181011102J. Chmielowski1.83711125123WSep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.441111153K. Rudomina2.6355130WSep 22 · 18:30M. Minda2.25116511J. Chmielowski1.5791111113
M. Kolek10
WOct 10 · 18:50S. Sporek1.44711111192M. Kolek2.63118137113LOct 10 · 18:05M. Kolek2.00811591D. Jadam1.7311811113LOct 10 · 16:30M. Kolek4.506115141K. Kolodziej1.1711811163WOct 10 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.53111211982M. Kolek2.38914511113WOct 10 · 01:10K. Rudomina2.501151081M. Kolek1.5071112113WOct 10 · 00:45M. Kolek1.251181112113J. Wozniak3.7581181462WOct 9 · 23:55M. Kolek1.7311116113M. Marchlewski2.00591151LOct 9 · 22:05M. Kolek2.00119791K. Staszczyk1.7391111113LOct 9 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.0011117113M. Kolek1.73781151LOct 9 · 20:30K. Rudomina2.38611113113M. Kolek1.5311781182
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Oct 10 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.83S. Sporek1.83—Oct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.00F. Mlynarski1.73—Oct 10 · 22:35J. Chmielowski1.91D. Jadam1.80—Oct 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.80M. Kolek1.91—Oct 11 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 16:30J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 18:50J. Chmielowski—F. Mlynarski——Oct 11 · 19:40J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 21:50J. Chmielowski—S. Sporek——
M. Kolek
Oct 10 · 21:25M. Kolek2.25F. Mlynarski1.57—Oct 10 · 21:50M. Kolek1.91D. Jadam1.80—Oct 10 · 23:20M. Kolek1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Oct 11 · 00:10M. Kolek—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 15:25M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——Oct 11 · 16:55M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——Oct 11 · 18:10M. Kolek—M. Kukawka——Oct 11 · 19:20M. Kolek—M. Trela——Oct 11 · 20:30M. Kolek—R. Stapor——Oct 11 · 21:05M. Kolek—M. Trela——
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