TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Petr vs Pavel Potmesil 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111188111311711
Pavel Potmesil
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:34 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Pavel Petr @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Pavel Potmesil below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 99 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Petr at 63.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 5–2 Pavel Potmesil Pavel Potmesil has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:34Sent to Pro: Pavel Petr @ 1.50 · Lost
63.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 5.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Petr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Petr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1128 vs Potmesil 1027
Petr
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 60% vs Potmesil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 60% vs Potmesil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr -1 · Potmesil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Petr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potmesil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.444 / Potmesil 2.625
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Petr)-5.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269593
Petr1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 28 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Potmesil2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 11 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePetr5wins
AwayPotmesil2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderPetr leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetr100%4 of 4
AwayPotmesil66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr4Potmesil3n = 7Petr took 4 of 7
S2Petr5Potmesil2n = 7Petr took 5 of 7
S3Petr2Potmesil5n = 7Potmesil took 5 of 7
S4Petr4Potmesil2n = 6Petr took 4 of 6
S5Petr2Potmesil1n = 3Petr took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPetrPotmesilPetr − PotmesilBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match43.340.3+3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrPotmesilBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 126 vs 30 / 6657.1%45.5%72 / 126 vs 30 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PetrPetr 1.44/Potmesil 2.63
Miss
What we said
63.7%
Petr · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavel Petr @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Potmesil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 8 · 09:30P. Petr46111311113P. Potmesil335111341
WJul 8 · 08:00P. Petr4212712113P. Potmesil4010111091
LMay 27 · 12:00P. Petr239860P. Potmesil331111113
WApr 28 · 11:00P. Petr4111127113P. Potmesil379101171
LDec 4 · 14:00P. Petr52131191182P. Potmesil53157119113
WDec 4 · 13:00P. Petr50111179123P. Potmesil43561111102
WNov 28 · 12:00P. Petr49811118113P. Potmesil4311671182
P. Petr10
WOct 10 · 09:08P. Petr1.551111113V. Kubat2.305740LOct 10 · 07:30J. Koch2.38711145113P. Petr1.53117121192WOct 10 · 06:00P. Petr1.731111113V. Kubat2.008660LSep 25 · 09:30P. Petr1.53119691V. Kubat2.3831111113WSep 25 · 08:30P. Petr1.8091111113V. Kubat1.91117751WSep 25 · 07:00P. Petr1.6711119113J. Pantak2.10831191WSep 25 · 06:00J. Koch2.2081111592P. Petr1.61118911113LSep 16 · 09:30V. Kubat2.0081111113P. Petr1.72113951WSep 16 · 08:00P. Petr1.3391111113J. Stary3.25118671WSep 16 · 07:30J. Koch2.50118791P. Petr1.5071111113
P. Potmesil10
WOct 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.61611471P. Potmesil2.2011711113LOct 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil1.401151151J. Koch2.7531113113LOct 6 · 13:30J. Strnad1.7311118113P. Potmesil2.00881151WOct 6 · 12:00C. Havrda1.611111613102P. Potmesil2.20871115123WOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil2.1021271262J. Strnad1.6711101110113LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790
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