TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Adamiak vs Szymon Kolasa 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811411118118911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:10 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Szymon Kolasa @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Szymon Kolasa at 66.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 7–17 Szymon Kolasa Grzegorz Adamiak has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:10Sent to Pro: Szymon Kolasa @ 1.50 · Won
66.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Kolasa
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1742 vs Kolasa 1871
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 20% vs Kolasa 60%
Kolasa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 30% vs Kolasa 50%
Kolasa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak +1 · Kolasa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Kolasa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.50 / Kolasa 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Kolasa)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13268487
Adamiak2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 61 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Kolasa1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 43 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak3wins
AwayKolasa7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak37.5%3 of 8
AwayKolasan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak8Kolasa2n = 10Adamiak took 8 of 10
S2Adamiak5Kolasa5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamiak2Kolasa8n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S4Adamiak1Kolasa6n = 7Kolasa took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakKolasaA − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match32.336.7−4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 760 vs 249 / 46642.9%53.4%326 / 760 vs 249 / 466Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaAdamiak 2.50/Kolasa 1.50
Hit
What we said
66.5%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Szymon Kolasa @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
2–3
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 10:00G. Adamiak26117621S. Kolasa3961111113
WSep 5 · 10:25G. Adamiak361411113S. Kolasa2712690
WSep 5 · 03:25G. Adamiak3711114113S. Kolasa36881191
WJul 3 · 09:45G. Adamiak341112113S. Kolasa1511040
LJul 3 · 03:00G. Adamiak30113971S. Kolasa4071111113
LMar 29 · 06:15G. Adamiak31117761S. Kolasa4291111113
LJan 25 · 15:50G. Adamiak4411126962S. Kolasa485101111113
LJan 25 · 10:35G. Adamiak32812751S. Kolasa43111011113
LJan 24 · 11:00G. Adamiak249870S. Kolasa331111113
LJan 24 · 10:10G. Adamiak29134841S. Kolasa44111111113
G. Adamiak10
WOct 10 · 06:30D. Michna1.53611115102G. Adamiak2.38117911123LOct 10 · 05:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75931121LOct 10 · 04:55G. Adamiak2.25127681T. Spanik1.57101111113LOct 10 · 03:45G. Adamiak2.758880P. Cyrnek1.401111113LSep 27 · 14:10G. Adamiak2.254790T. Spanik1.571111113WSep 27 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.6712880G. Adamiak2.101411113LSep 27 · 11:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75991141LSep 27 · 10:50G. Adamiak2.201210811112M. Miastowski1.611012115133LSep 27 · 09:40G. Adamiak2.759360M. Jadczyk1.401111113WSep 27 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.73911911112G. Adamiak2.00113114133
S. Kolasa10
LOct 10 · 09:00P. Cyrnek1.57117811113S. Kolasa2.2581111582WOct 10 · 07:20T. Spanik1.83106111172S. Kolasa1.83121185113LOct 10 · 05:15D. Michna1.6710111110113S. Kolasa2.1012991292WOct 10 · 04:30P. Cyrnek1.61111170S. Kolasa2.201313113LOct 10 · 03:00K. Petas1.83111117113S. Kolasa1.83731981WSep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa1.9112118133J. Zandecki1.8010911111LSep 24 · 12:30A. Daniel2.25891211113S. Kolasa1.57111110782WSep 24 · 11:40P. David1.53881191S. Kolasa2.3811115113WSep 24 · 10:50S. Kolasa1.6711117123K. Kolodziej2.105911101LSep 24 · 09:40S. Kolasa2.00781381A. Grela1.73111111113
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