TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Kolesnykov vs Andrey Troyan 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 51 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 75.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 11–42 Andrey Troyan Valerii Kolesnykov has won 11 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3475.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 2.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-42 in 53
Troyan
Correct
gap of 31 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1579 vs Troyan 1654
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Troyan 20%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Troyan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov -1 · Troyan -4
Troyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 3.50 / Troyan 1.285
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Troyan)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266208
Kolesnykov3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Troyan1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 182 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it92% 100 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it79% 140 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov0wins
AwayTroyan10wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov0%0 of 4
AwayTroyan100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S2Kolesnykov1Troyan9n = 10Troyan took 9 of 10
S3Kolesnykov3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10
S4Kolesnykov1Troyan7n = 8Troyan took 7 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovTroyanK − TBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.240.3−12.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 655 vs 477 / 97953.1%48.7%348 / 655 vs 477 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanKolesnykov 3.50/Troyan 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov28114941A. Troyan4071111113
LSep 28 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov2381050A. Troyan341112113
LSep 23 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov133280A. Troyan331111113
LSep 21 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov27122671A. Troyan43101111113
LSep 15 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov26119331A. Troyan4181111113
LSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov30781141A. Troyan3911116113
LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov281134101A. Troyan4281111123
LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov33781171A. Troyan3911116113
LJul 28 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov30511861A. Troyan3911611113
LJul 27 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov4446111492A. Troyan531111812113
V. Kolesnykov10
LOct 9 · 09:35Y. Holoborodko1.5331111113V. Kolesnykov2.38115841WOct 9 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov1.91111011113O. Karpenko1.80812591WOct 9 · 07:35Y. Volkov2.107611101V. Kolesnykov1.6711119123LOct 9 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov2.6391070Y. Kovshun1.441112113WOct 5 · 10:30O. Volynets2.109580V. Kolesnykov1.671111113LOct 5 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.4088111162A. Kovalenko2.75111147113WOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760WOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992LOct 5 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov1.67971111102S. Solomko2.10111145123WOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121
A. Troyan10
LOct 9 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.63131144113A. Troyan1.44113111172LOct 9 · 09:05Y. Volkov1.73111115113A. Troyan2.001361311LOct 9 · 07:05Y. Kovshun1.53111199153A. Troyan2.38371111132LOct 9 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko1.5711115113A. Troyan2.25681141WOct 6 · 12:05S. Kyienko2.20811111172A. Troyan1.61111398113WOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 08:35V. Bilobrov3.407121091A. Troyan1.30111012113WOct 6 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.7331251242A. Troyan2.0011101110113WOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113LOct 5 · 10:35A. Troyan1.57101090O. Karpenko2.251212113
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