TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kyienko vs Andrey Troyan 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Serhii Kyienko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111113119118711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Andrey Troyan @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingSerhii Kyienko above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 100 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 58.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kyienko 8–15 Andrey Troyan Serhii Kyienko has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:0458.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Troyan
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kyienko 1642 vs Troyan 1705
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kyienko 20% vs Troyan 80%
Troyan
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kyienko 50% vs Troyan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kyienko +1 · Troyan +4
Troyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKyienko 2.20 / Troyan 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Troyan)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251266
Kyienko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Troyan1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 181 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it92% 100 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it79% 138 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKyienko4wins
AwayTroyan6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKyienko40%2 of 5
AwayTroyan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kyienko5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Kyienko5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S3Kyienko3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10
S4Kyienko5Troyan2n = 7Kyienko took 5 of 7
S5Kyienko1Troyan3n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKyienkoTroyanK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.2−1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyienkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 154 vs 479 / 97954.6%48.9%84 / 154 vs 479 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanKyienko 2.20/Troyan 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrey Troyan @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
2–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 11:30S. Kyienko155640A. Troyan331111113
WSep 18 · 11:30S. Kyienko49971111113A. Troyan3911115482
WMay 2 · 07:05S. Kyienko45111211113A. Troyan401310981
LApr 11 · 06:05S. Kyienko50141191062A. Troyan541281112113
LMar 28 · 11:05S. Kyienko52121191462A. Troyan561481112113
LMar 7 · 07:30S. Kyienko29119361A. Troyan3851111113
WFeb 22 · 07:05S. Kyienko49111113143A. Troyan387415121
WFeb 15 · 18:40S. Kyienko341112113A. Troyan2181030
LFeb 14 · 09:05S. Kyienko4412691162A. Troyan501011117113
LFeb 8 · 11:05S. Kyienko183870A. Troyan331111113
S. Kyienko10
WOct 6 · 10:05A. Martyniuk2.50116451S. Kyienko1.5091111113LOct 6 · 08:05Y. Volkov2.38114611113S. Kyienko1.5391111872LOct 6 · 07:05S. Kyienko1.6791141182Y. Kovshun2.10115115113LOct 6 · 06:05V. Bilobrov1.361111113S. Kyienko3.007870LSep 25 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.105640A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 25 · 09:30Y. Kovshun2.1011911682S. Kyienko1.67711511113LSep 25 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.386121111113S. Kyienko1.53111061372WSep 25 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.53118117113O. Karpenko2.3861161152WSep 25 · 05:30A. Martyniuk2.2011671172S. Kyienko1.61811118113WSep 18 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.10971111113A. Troyan1.6711115482
A. Troyan10
WOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 08:35V. Bilobrov3.407121091A. Troyan1.30111012113WOct 6 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.7331251242A. Troyan2.0011101110113WOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113LOct 5 · 10:35A. Troyan1.57101090O. Karpenko2.251212113LOct 5 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko3.4011115113A. Troyan1.30781181LOct 5 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.80111146113A. Troyan1.9199111182WOct 5 · 05:35Y. Kovshun1.5311591272A. Troyan2.387111110113WSep 25 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.105640A. Troyan1.671111113LSep 18 · 11:30S. Kyienko2.10971111113A. Troyan1.6711115482
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.