TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhenii Holoborodko vs Valerii Kolesnykov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311115118114––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:32 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Valerii Kolesnykov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 64 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 58.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 2–1 Valerii Kolesnykov Valerii Kolesnykov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3258.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1552 vs Kolesnykov 1579
Kolesnykov
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 60% vs Kolesnykov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 40% vs Kolesnykov 70%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko -1 · Kolesnykov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnykov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 1.533 / Kolesnykov 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Holoborodko)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266182
Holoborodko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 99 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 65 of 97
Kolesnykov2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHoloborodko2wins
AwayKolesnykov1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko2Kolesnykov1n = 3Holoborodko took 2 of 3
S2Holoborodko2Kolesnykov1n = 3Holoborodko took 2 of 3
S3Holoborodko2Kolesnykov1n = 3Holoborodko took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoKolesnykovH − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.034.7+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoKolesnykovBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 697 vs 349 / 65750.9%53.1%355 / 697 vs 349 / 657Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoHoloborodko 1.53/Kolesnykov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 9 · 09:35Y. Holoborodko3631111113V. Kolesnykov28115841
WJan 12 · 06:35Y. Holoborodko341111123V. Kolesnykov2688100
LDec 29 · 11:30Y. Holoborodko47111281152V. Kolesnykov50814116113
Y. Holoborodko10
LOct 9 · 08:05Y. Holoborodko1.7371090Y. Kovshun2.001112113WOct 9 · 06:35Y. Holoborodko1.401111113O. Karpenko2.756490WOct 9 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko1.5711115113A. Troyan2.25681141WOct 8 · 17:40V. Shvidkiy1.5711119592Y. Holoborodko2.25841111113LOct 8 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.503920A. Zozulia1.501111113LOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650LOct 8 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.36118119113Y. Holoborodko3.0081191192WOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113LOct 7 · 17:40A. Zozulia1.441111511113Y. Holoborodko2.6377111342LOct 7 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.614990V. Ishchuk2.201111113
V. Kolesnykov10
WOct 9 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov1.91111011113O. Karpenko1.80812591WOct 9 · 07:35Y. Volkov2.107611101V. Kolesnykov1.6711119123LOct 9 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov2.6391070Y. Kovshun1.441112113WOct 5 · 10:30O. Volynets2.109580V. Kolesnykov1.671111113LOct 5 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.4088111162A. Kovalenko2.75111147113WOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760WOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992LOct 5 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov1.67971111102S. Solomko2.10111145123WOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.91101150V. Kolesnykov1.801213113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Holoborodko
Nothing scheduled
V. Kolesnykov
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