TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Karpenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311113411411117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 67.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Karpenko 38–47 Andrey Troyan Oleh Karpenko has won 38 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3367.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Troyan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-47 in 85
Troyan
Wrong
gap of 9 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1535 vs Troyan 1669
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 40% vs Troyan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 40% vs Troyan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -3 · Troyan -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.625 / Troyan 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Troyan)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266019
Karpenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back31% 31 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 60
Troyan1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 182 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it92% 100 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it79% 140 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpenko4wins
AwayTroyan6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpenko60%3 of 5
AwayTroyan80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpenko5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Karpenko4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Karpenko4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S4Karpenko2Troyan5n = 7Troyan took 5 of 7
S5Karpenko2Troyan1n = 3Karpenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpenkoTroyanK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.5−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 685 vs 477 / 97852.4%48.8%359 / 685 vs 477 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanKarpenko 2.63/Troyan 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 10:35O. Karpenko351212113A. Troyan29101090
LOct 2 · 04:30O. Karpenko2010730A. Troyan341211113
LSep 25 · 10:00O. Karpenko327311111A. Troyan3911114133
WSep 23 · 11:30O. Karpenko50791211113A. Troyan43111110652
LSep 18 · 10:00O. Karpenko335116111A. Troyan4011511133
LSep 15 · 10:00O. Karpenko32118941A. Troyan3961111113
WSep 14 · 12:05O. Karpenko44111155123A. Troyan41541111102
LSep 11 · 10:00O. Karpenko163850A. Troyan331111113
LSep 4 · 10:00O. Karpenko4811146892A. Troyan516121111113
WAug 31 · 10:00O. Karpenko4211713113A. Troyan369111151
O. Karpenko10
LOct 9 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov1.91111011113O. Karpenko1.80812591LOct 9 · 06:35Y. Holoborodko1.401111113O. Karpenko2.756490LOct 9 · 05:35Y. Volkov1.401211113O. Karpenko2.7510670WOct 5 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.501186101O. Karpenko2.5061111123WOct 5 · 10:35A. Troyan1.57101090O. Karpenko2.251212113WOct 5 · 10:22O. Karpenko2.301111113S. Hryhorenko1.552780LOct 5 · 09:05Y. Kovshun1.671111113O. Karpenko2.107880LOct 5 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.4014611113O. Karpenko2.751211851LOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.40118861O. Karpenko2.7541111113
A. Troyan10
WOct 9 · 11:35V. Kolesnykov3.505490A. Troyan1.281111113LOct 9 · 09:05Y. Volkov1.73111115113A. Troyan2.001361311LOct 9 · 07:05Y. Kovshun1.53111199153A. Troyan2.38371111132LOct 9 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko1.5711115113A. Troyan2.25681141WOct 6 · 12:05S. Kyienko2.20811111172A. Troyan1.61111398113WOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 08:35V. Bilobrov3.407121091A. Troyan1.30111012113WOct 6 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.7331251242A. Troyan2.0011101110113WOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113LOct 5 · 10:35A. Troyan1.57101090O. Karpenko2.251212113
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