TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Seliuchenko vs Oleksandr Strutinskiy 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11912101210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 2.62 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingOleksandr Seliuchenko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 61.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Seliuchenko 17–8 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Oleksandr Strutinskiy has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 13:04Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 2.62 · Lost
61.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 8.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Seliuchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Seliuchenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seliuchenko 1601 vs Strutinskiy 1715
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seliuchenko 40% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seliuchenko 30% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Seliuchenko -1 · Strutinskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeliuchenko 1.444 / Strutinskiy 2.625
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Seliuchenko)-8.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266184
Seliuchenko1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it75% 54 of 72
Strutinskiy2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 59 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeliuchenko9wins
AwayStrutinskiy1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeliuchenko100%6 of 6
AwayStrutinskiy25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seliuchenko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S2Seliuchenko8Strutinskiy2n = 10Seliuchenko took 8 of 10
S3Seliuchenko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S4Seliuchenko5Strutinskiy1n = 6Seliuchenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeliuchenkoStrutinskiySeliuchenko − StrutinskiyBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.031.6+6.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeliuchenkoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 335 vs 430 / 82656.4%52.1%189 / 335 vs 430 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiySeliuchenko 1.44/Strutinskiy 2.63
Miss
What we said
61.3%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 2.62 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Seliuchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 17:30O. Seliuchenko249870O. Strutinskiy331111113
WSep 24 · 18:30O. Seliuchenko46711116113O. Strutinskiy3811381152
WJun 26 · 09:50O. Seliuchenko46111113113O. Strutinskiy37761591
WJun 22 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko331111113O. Strutinskiy207850
WJun 15 · 16:50O. Seliuchenko331111113O. Strutinskiy237790
WJun 11 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko4211125143O. Strutinskiy3851011121
WJun 1 · 21:20O. Seliuchenko46312911113O. Strutinskiy43111011382
WMay 30 · 06:50O. Seliuchenko3631111113O. Strutinskiy32119571
WMay 29 · 14:50O. Seliuchenko331111113O. Strutinskiy153480
WMay 25 · 20:20O. Seliuchenko4111711123O. Strutinskiy378118101
O. Seliuchenko10
LOct 9 · 14:10O. Seliuchenko1.571151071A. Derevianko2.2571112113WOct 9 · 12:40O. Seliuchenko1.611111123I. Nitchenko2.2078100WOct 9 · 11:40O. Seliuchenko1.501111113A. Nazarov2.505560LOct 2 · 15:40O. Seliuchenko2.6381290V. Marushchak1.441114103LOct 2 · 14:40O. Seliuchenko2.00811131282A. Hrabskyi1.731151114113LOct 2 · 13:10O. Seliuchenko2.00126116102V. Savoliuk1.731011811123LOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890
O. Strutinskiy10
LOct 9 · 13:40O. Strutinskiy1.679350I. Nitchenko2.101111113LOct 9 · 12:10O. Strutinskiy1.686930A. Derevianko2.051111113WOct 9 · 10:40O. Strutinskiy1.5761113113A. Nazarov2.251151171WOct 6 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.10811951O. Strutinskiy1.6711811113WOct 6 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko2.50114531O. Strutinskiy1.50111211113WOct 6 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.9110113111O. Strutinskiy1.8012911133LOct 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov3.259111110113O. Strutinskiy1.3311841292LOct 6 · 05:50M. Mrykh2.0071111113O. Strutinskiy1.73119581WOct 5 · 17:40A. Derevianko2.10117101152O. Strutinskiy1.67811127113WOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870
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