TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Seliuchenko vs Andrii Derevianko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1175111012711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:34 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Andrii Derevianko @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingOleksandr Seliuchenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 54.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Seliuchenko 22–14 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:34Sent to Pro: Andrii Derevianko @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
54.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 8.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Seliuchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Seliuchenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seliuchenko 1609 vs Derevianko 1720
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seliuchenko 40% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seliuchenko 30% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Seliuchenko +2 · Derevianko +3
Derevianko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeliuchenko 1.571 / Derevianko 2.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Derevianko)+0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13265877
Seliuchenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it75% 54 of 72
Derevianko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 139 of 332
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back12% 11 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeliuchenko6wins
AwayDerevianko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeliuchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevianko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seliuchenko6Derevianko4n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S2Seliuchenko3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S3Seliuchenko8Derevianko2n = 10Seliuchenko took 8 of 10
S4Seliuchenko4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S5Seliuchenko2Derevianko1n = 3Seliuchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeliuchenkoDereviankoS − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.7+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeliuchenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 334 vs 482 / 100556.6%48%189 / 334 vs 482 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoSeliuchenko 1.57/Derevianko 2.25
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Derevianko @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
1–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 18:30O. Seliuchenko4515811113A. Derevianko401311881
LSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko32761181A. Derevianko4011117113
LSep 24 · 12:00O. Seliuchenko4381111762A. Derevianko38111411113
WJun 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko4211911113A. Derevianko31711761
WJun 22 · 20:50O. Seliuchenko511113124113A. Derevianko48715101152
LJun 18 · 14:50O. Seliuchenko3811101161A. Derevianko4151213113
WJun 15 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko4281111123A. Derevianko341158101
LJun 11 · 21:20O. Seliuchenko32771171A. Derevianko4211119113
WJun 6 · 06:20O. Seliuchenko3813113113A. Derevianko341171151
WJun 1 · 16:50O. Seliuchenko47118134113A. Derevianko49911111172
O. Seliuchenko10
WOct 9 · 12:40O. Seliuchenko1.611111123I. Nitchenko2.2078100WOct 9 · 11:40O. Seliuchenko1.501111113A. Nazarov2.505560LOct 2 · 15:40O. Seliuchenko2.6381290V. Marushchak1.441114103LOct 2 · 14:40O. Seliuchenko2.00811131282A. Hrabskyi1.731151114113LOct 2 · 13:10O. Seliuchenko2.00126116102V. Savoliuk1.731011811123LOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122
A. Derevianko10
WOct 9 · 13:10A. Derevianko1.91129117113A. Nazarov1.80101181192WOct 9 · 12:10O. Strutinskiy1.686930A. Derevianko2.051111113WOct 9 · 11:10A. Derevianko2.38511412133I. Nitchenko1.531161110112LOct 6 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.10811951O. Strutinskiy1.6711811113WOct 6 · 10:20M. Mrykh2.101348111A. Derevianko1.67111111133WOct 6 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.5711116113E. Hrytsenko2.25261161LOct 6 · 08:20I. Nitchenko1.5381112113A. Derevianko2.381171091WOct 6 · 06:50A. Derevianko1.36731111123O. Zhyrnov3.00111147102LOct 5 · 17:40A. Derevianko2.10117101152O. Strutinskiy1.67811127113LOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113
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